Research On The Impact Of Changes In Refined Oil Consumption Tax Rate On Consumer Demand

With the increasing of per capita disposable income and acceleration of industrialization,the demand of refined oil is rising year by year in China.In 2014,the nation’s gasoline consumption is 97.76 million tons,and diesel consumption is 171.65 million tons.Products oil plays an important role on economic growth,especially,for industry,agriculture,warehousing and transportation.In the long run,the demand of oil consumption is likely to be on the increase in China.However,the increasing of oil consumption demand,not only has brought the rapid development of economy,but also produced negative environmental externalities,such as carbon oxides,nitrogen oxides,sulfur dioxide and air pollutants,etc.How to find a balance between the economic development and the environmental pollution treatment? It perhaps is the solution that to pay for the environment and let environment as a cost to the consumer in the line of sight.So whether the consumption tax,as a kind of environmental taxes will effectively affect the refined oil consumption behavior or not? What are the main factors that affect oil consumption behavior?In this paper,we use the data of gasoline and diesel consumption tax,which are the fraction of the subdirectories of product oil,to research the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand.Considering irrational consumption behavior,we draw consumption tax and tax-exclusive price unequally into the model to study their influence on consumer behavior.For the relationship between refined oil consumption and the consumer demand,in this paper,we use the whole country consumption time series data and 20 provinces(municipalities)consumption of panel data,and consider the various factors that affect consumer behavior: tax-exclusive price,unit tax amount(tax),the per capita disposable income,price index,the per capita car ownership,the people’s livelihood spending levels,urbanization rate,the unemployment rate,policy virtual variables,etc.On the basis of multiple linear regression,this paper builds a series of double logarithmic linear model,uses ordinary least squares estimation model coefficient,concludes the regression equations,then analyses the price elasticity of demand and the tax elasticity of demand.In the model of time series data,to select the fitting regression model with better effect,we take adjusted R-squared,t test with p values and standard error of regression coefficient into accont,and then check the model for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.Next,we use the instrumental variable,replacing the refined petroleum price with international price of crude oil price,to verificate exogenous problem of product oil price,and to ensure that the model is correct.In the panel data model,as well as the time series mode,adopting panel data of ordinary least squares method to estimate the explanation variable model of regression coefficient.And then by capturing different heteroscedasticity in different areas,to improve the whole variable model.Finally we analyse the reason of the result.This article comes to some conclusions by the establishment of the double logarithm model of refined oil market.The first conclusion is that tax-exclusive price and tax rate influence on consumption demand are negative,and the latter is larger than the former.From an elastic point of view,it concludes that the tax elasticity of demand is greater than the tax-exclusive price elasticity of demand,tax is more salient than equivalent changes in price.Per capita disposable income and time virtual variables also has significant effects on consumer demand.Panel data captures the heteroscedasticity,it is partly an improvement on time-series data.Comparing different regression coefficients between gasoline and diesel market,the article finds that the salience of tax changes not only with areas,also changes with different consumer market.Accordingly,refined oil consumption tax can effectively affect consumer behavior and reduce carbon emissions in the air to achieve the purpose of ‘energy-saving and emission-reduction’ and environmental pollution control.