The Research Of Price Fluctuation Problems Of Cotton In Shandong Province

Recent years the price of cotton is intense,it makes an effect to the steady development of cotton production and the farmers' economic income.This paper analyse the volatility of cotton prices,the factors that cause the cotton prices fluctuations and the related guidances to stable cotton prices.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:1?At first,it use trend analysis method to measure and calculate the long volatility of cotton prices,we found that compared to before 2000,cotton prices fluctuated more strongly beyond the year 2000.Meanwhile,it carry on the cycle division about the cotton prices after 1990,there are mainly five cycles:(1)First cycle(1990-1995).In 1990 and 1991,prices remain unchanged.In 1992 and 1993,prices decline.In1994 and 1995,the prices has recovered.(2)Second cycle(1996-2000).From 1996 to 1999,cotton prices continue to decline.In 2000,the prices has recovered.(3)Third cycle(2001-2003).In 2001 and 2002,the prices decline.In 2003,the prices has recovered.(4)Fourth cycle(2004-2011).In 2004,the prices decline.In 2005 and 2006,the prices has recovered.From 2007 and 2009,the prices decline.In 2010 and 2011,the prices has recovered.(5)Fifth cycle(2012--).In2014 and 2015,the prices decline.In 2016,the prices has recovered.2?It use the BN decomposition method to analyse the short-term fluctuation of cotton prices from 2000 to 2016.The results are as follows:(1)Separating the deterministic trends.The deterministic trend of cotton has been rising steadily,which is caused by the increase in the cost of production and the supply of cotton less than demand.(2)Separating the cyclical components.The cotton monthly price from 2000 to 2016 was divided into 6 full cycles:(1)First cycle(2000.12-2002.8).There are ten months for prices of cotton risen and eleven months for prices of cotton declined.(2)Second cycle(2002.9-2003.10).There are nine months for prices of cotton risen and five months for prices of cotton declined.(3)Third cycle(2003.11-2005.5).There are five months for prices of cotton risen and fourteen months for prices of cotton declined.(4)Fourth cycle(2005.6-2009.7).There are twenty-one months for prices of cotton risen and twenty-nine months for prices of cotton declined.(5)Fifth cycle(2009.8-2010.11).There are twelve months for prices of cotton risen and four months for prices of cotton declined.(6)Sixth cycle(2010.12-2013.7).There are fourteen months for prices of cotton risen and eighteen months for prices of cotton declined.(3)Separating the stochastic trends.It has a positive impact on cotton price fluctuations and has persistent.3?It introduces the influencing factors of cotton price fluctuations in Shandong province.Firstly,from a qualitative point of view,the relationship between supply and demand,exchange rate,liquidity problems and the import and export,previous period prices of cotton and international cotton prices,food prices,cotton quality,policy,relevant systems and the competitiveness of cotton industry can have an impact to cotton price fluctuations.Then,with the consideration of selected from cotton net imports,international cotton prices,food prices,cotton yield and previous period prices of cotton of these five factors by quantitative analysis.The results show that the top three have a greater and positive impact,the latter two have a minor and negative impact on cotton price fluctuations.4?It analyse the impact of cotton price fluctuations on related industries.First of all,it will affect the income of the farmers.The price of cotton determines how many farmers income.The long-term instability of the price will have a negative effect on farmers.Nextly,it will bring harm to the textile industry.On the one hand,it will reduce the interests of domestic processing enterprises and is not conducive to the development of enterprises,On the other hand,it will have an impact on export enterprises and is not conducive to the normal operation and reduce the profits of enterprises and the international competitiveness.5?This thesis provides the related guidances to stable cotton prices and promote social and economic development.The main points are as follows:(1)Enhancing national competitiveness and ensuring stable cotton prices.(2)Carrying out pilot work in some places and continuing to improve the cotton purchasing and storage policy.(3)The government strengthen supervision,strict disposal of illegal phenomenon and ensure normal crop planting area.(4)Ensuring the positive development of cotton industry and enhancing its market competition.(5)Focusing on the development of leading enterprises and achieving the industrialization of cotton.(6)Monitoring and researching of cotton and other important agricultural products market.(7)Further improving the cotton market mechanism and strengthening the supervision of the cotton market.(8)Increasing investment in the cotton industry.(9)Strongly supporting the advantageous cotton's area,optimizing cotton production layout and establishing cotton industry protection area.