The Research Of Cotton Price Volatility In Xinjiang

Cotton is an important economic crop in China.Xinijang is the main producing area of cotton in China,and it has a very important position in China’s economic development.In Xinjiang,cotton income is one of the main income of farmers,cotton has great contribution to Xinjiang agricultural development.The fluctuation of cotton price has great influence on Xinjiang economy development.The paper makes an empirical analysis on the fluctuation characteristics and trend of cotton price in Xinjiang during 1999-2015.The corresponding measures and suggestions are put forward.The article is divided into five chapters.Chapter1,the preface is about the research background,purpose and significance,the status of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang.And make the research method and technical route of this research.Chaper2,give the concepts of cotton price,cotton price structure,and the theory of price fluctuation,Chaper3,compare the price level of the cotton in Xinjiang,Shandong Province and national average.Analyze the Xinjiang cotton price data during 1999-2015,calculate the price fitting index,regression analyze cotton price index data.Using SAS software,respectively regression analyze Xinjiang cotton price index for linear,polynomial function,hyperbolic function,power function,exponential function and logarithmic faction and S function.According to the results of F test and T test and compare the R-square and adjusted R-square,select the power function y=t^2.02810as the optimal regression model of cotton price fluctuation.Finally,calculate price fluctuation index,analyze cotton price fluctuation period according to economic fluctuation period theory.Chaper4,empirically analyze Xinjiang cotton price fluctuation influence factor,establish regression model of domestic cotton prices,domestic cotton inventory,national net exports,Xinjiang cotton output and Xinjiang cotton price.Then analyze the influence of these factors.Chaper5,based on the regression model of the influence factors of cotton price fluctuation in Xinjiang,give some policies and suggestions on Xinjiang cotton price.It is hoped that the policy support and subsidies,construction of information platform,construction of cotton reserve base,scale production,scientific research and structural adjustment will be adjusted.