Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On The Labor Supply In China

Entering the 21st century,the aging of the population has become one of the important problems that humanity facing.Our country is currently experiencing a gradual acceleration of the process of population aging,since 2000 entering into the aging society.The aging of the population not only brings the increase of the size of the elderly population and the proportion of the elderly population,but also bring changes in the population of all age groups,especially the age structure of the working age population.The size and proportion of the working age population will change with the degree of population ageing,and thus impacting the development of the socio-economic.The impact of population aging on labor supply is mainly reflected in the number of labor and labor participation rate.Population aging will bring many problems in the population and labor supply,which will affect China's sustained and stable development of the socio-economic.The main content of this paper is divided into three parts:first,combing the literature of population aging and labor supply,finding out some shortcomings of the current research from analyzing and summarizing the relevant literature,so as to provide theoretical support and space for further exploration;Secondly,through the analysis of historical data,the paper analyzes the situation of population aging and labor supply in China,and analyzes the status quo of population aging in China from the present situation,causes and characteristics of the population aging in China and the changes of the total labor,labor age structure and labor participation rate changes;Finally,the empirical part analyzes and validates the impact of the population aging on the labor supply quantity and the labor participation rate.Combined with background of "comprehensive two children" policy,to predict population and the working age population size in the future of 2018-2050 on the basis of the 2015 national 1%sample survey data,to predict the change trend of total labor supply and the structure in the future,founding the problem of the future population and the labor market may face.Secondly,by establishing multivariate regression models to describe and explain the relationship of population aging and labor participation rate from the perspective of econometrics.Through the qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper draw the following conclusions:(1)Qualitative analysis,from the point of historical data,the absolute quantity and relative proportion of working age population showed a trend of decline,the working age population center of gravity to aging,labor participation rate steady decline with the degree of population aging.(2)Quantitative analysis,in the aspect of China's future labor supply forecast from 2018 to 2050,the future of our country's population will peak in 2032;65 and older population size rising,and the degree of population aging deepen;Working age population scale will show a trend of falling;Internal structure of working age population will increase the aging trend.In the empirical aspect,the aging of population has significant negative correlation with labor participation rate,after controlling for economic growth,industrial structure,population urbanization rate,the education level,the level of social security,the level of wages.Finally,for the challenges of the population ageing and the labor supply,putting forward the following policy suggestions:Perfect "comprehensive two children"policy supporting policies to activate the policy;Speed up the implementation of delay retirement age policy;Develop and use the old human resources fully;Optimize the industrial structure to improve labor productivity.