An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Bank Credit Growth On Real Estate Price Fluctuation In China

Since the full liberalization of real estate marketization in 1998,China’s real estate industry has become a new economic growth point,the real estate market is showing an increasingly prosperous situation,and real estate consumption demand is also growing.The rapid development of the real estate industry is driving the economic growth,promoting the development of upstream and downstream industries and increasing employment.At the same time,it has also caused the phenomenon of rapid growth in housing prices and the contradiction between supply and demand.Therefore,studying the mechanism behind the rapid growth of real estate prices is of great significance to the healthy development of China’s real estate industry.As the pillar industry that drives the development of the national economy,the most important source of funds for the real estate industry is bank credit.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the interaction between bank credit growth and real estate price volatility.The research content of this paper is mainly from the perspective of credit quantity.Through theoretical research and empirical research,on the basis of evaluating relevant literature,it explores the mechanism of mutual influence between bank credit and house price,and theoretically promotes real estate price for ’bank credit growth.The mechanism of fluctuation and the mutual transmission mechanism between them are explained.Through the analysis of the real estate industry and the development status of bank real estate credit,it sorts out and puts forward the focus of further research.Finally,the VAR model is established for empirical analysis.The results of impulse response function and variance decomposition show that bank credit scale is an important factor affecting house price changes.Bank credit growth causes house prices to rise,and the two are positively interacting.It will drive rapid GDP growth and long-term convergence.In terms of policy recommendations,this paper argues that on the one hand,the government must adopt cautious monetary and credit policies when implementing real estate regulation and control,and reduce the impact on the national economy;on the other hand,it must continue to vigorously promote the supply side of the real estate industry and the banking and finance industry.Reform,appropriately reduce the stimulus effect of demand-side growth on the economy,emphasize the material attributes of the house,earnestly implement the requirements for real estate destocking,vigorously promote the implementation of rental housing and the real estate tax;promote and deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side,optimize The financing structure,financial market system and product system,with the protection and service of the real economy as the starting point,build a higher quality and more efficient financial service system.