A Study On The Convergence Of Inter-Provincial Economic Growth In China Based On Spatial Econometric Model

One of the hot issues in regional economic analysis is the study of the convergence of economic growth.The model of economic growth convergence based on neoclassical economic growth theory is the main empirical model to study the convergence of regional economic growth,the convergence of economic growth refers to the widening of the gap between per capita output levels between different economic regions.With the passage of time,the ultimate economic growth can be achieved.Since the Reform and Opening policy,economy is growing rapidly in our county.The rate of economic growth varies widely among different regions.Whether the scale of economic growth or economic growth rate,the eastern region to be significantly larger than the central and western regions.Narrowing the regional economic gap and promoting the coordinated development of regional economy is an important issue in our country.The traditional research on the convergence of economic growth is based on the assumes that the regions are independent of each other,Ignoring the influence of geospatial factors.The actual situation is the economic and trade between different economic regions Capital,technology,talent and other factors of production,any economic region is not an independent individual,there is spatial correlation between economic growth.Thus,the conclusions drawn from the traditional economic growth convergence model are often biased or unreliable.This paper adopts the method of spatial econometrics,the spatial geography factor is introduced into the economic growth convergence model by constructing the spatial weight matrix.Selecting the actual per capita GDP as a measure of economic growth indicators,selecting the capital stock,technology,employment population ratio,second and third industry accounted for such as may affect the economic growth of convergence factors.This paper studies the convergence of economic growth in 29 provinces in China from 1980 to 2015.It is found that there is a significant positive spatial correlation between regional economic growth in China,the spillover effect between provinces is obvious,the level of economic growth in a province is significantly affected by the level of economic growth in neighboring provinces.Compared with the spatial error model,the spatial lag model is more suitable for the analysis of the convergence of regional economic growth in China.The results of alpha convergence analysis show that,there is a decreasing trend in the absolute level of regional economic gap in our country.Absolute beta convergence and Conditional beta convergence models show that,from 1980 to 2015,the overall average level of China does not have absolute convergence,but there are conditions of convergence,technology,employment accounted for the proportion of second and third industry accounted for the conditions that affect the convergence of economic growth.After 1994,there is an absolute convergence trend in China,and as time goes on,the absolute beta convergence trend becomes more and more,the absolute beta convergence rate is increasing,and the absolute convergence rate is 1.3% in 2004-2015.In the four periods of the study,there are obvious conditions in China,and technical factors have always been the conditions that affect the convergence of economic growth.Therefore,strengthening the technical exchanges and cooperation among provinces and autonomous regions is an effective way to effectively reduce the economic gap.