| World economy shows a periodical fluctuation due to a series of factors such as international financing market,political and war risks,trend of market demands and scientific-technological innovations.The economic cycle significantly impacting on shipping market conducted a consequently periodical fluctuation.At the trough,shipping industry suffers significant challenges in business operation,investment and financing while facing new precious opportunities of asset optimization and market segementation.In the meantime,the value shrinkage in stock market,bonds and banking credits substantially produced a financing predicament.In this context,this thesis systemically demonstrated a portfolio strategy on investment and competition for the small and medium-sized shipping companies including differentiation competitive,game theory,real option theory and traditional investment strategy.The contents of this research are as follows:First,the paper made a research on paradox of EMH and counter-cyclical strategy analyzing the finance predicament of SMEs at the trough of periodical fluctuation of shipping industry.Second,the paper demonstrated the traditional ship fund mode such as KS/KG and a upgraded PE structure on China ship fund by conditions and regulations in Chinese market.Third,Many current research methods of the traditional shipping investment strategy are based on modes of finance research theory.Some of them made a qualitative analysis of VAR which could be ecumenically summarized as a risk premium model,others applied a Portfolio Theory to ship investment.Those methods are high valued but considering shipping assets are long term investment with illiquidity that in practice the capital of SMEs normally constrained a large scale investment.Starting up from counter-cyclical strategy,the paper demonstrated a new research on a framework combined competitive strategy,game and real option strategy and analyze the feasibility of breaking into oligopolistic market obtained from counter-cyclical investment.Fourth,the paper also casted a case research on a real project assessment and investment strategies of semi-submersible vessels of 50,000 DWT by analysis of market demands and barriers to entry with models of SWOT,KSF,Michael Porter’s Five Forces,theory of product life cycle and game models.The case research also made a quantitative calculation to test the expected revenue by NPV,IRR,PI and areal option model.In sum,a systematic feasibility of combined framework of counter-cyclical strategy,ship financing,differentiation competitive,game and real option theory for SMEs in shipping industry in the environment of post-economy crisis was demonstrated. |
