Spatial Prediction And Optimization On Land Use Of Guanghan City Based On CA-Markov

Land is an important material foundation of human life and social production,but with the development of social economy,the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources is becoming increasingly prominent.Land resource is becoming a key factor to economic development and the improvement of people's living standard.Therefore,we must coordinate the relationship between people and land resource,realizing the reason of land use/cover change,optimizing land use structure,and guarantee the sustainable development of social economy.In this paper,the research object was Guanghan of Sichuan province.We chose the remote sensing image of 2003/2009/2014 as the data source,and adopted methods to analyze land use temporal and spatial evolution law,such as land utilization degree index,the transition matrix,and discussed the influential factors of land use pattern change.We Built the CA-Markov model to simulate 2014 land utilization condition of Guanghan,and put the results to the test in space and number.Afterwards,this model was used to simulate of land use pattern in 2020 based on cultivated land protection,economic priority and ecological protection.At last,to optimize the land use pattern,and to Put forward the proposal for the development of Guanghan.According to the research,conclusions were as follows:(1)In 2003-2014,the land use structure of Guanghan experienced bigger change.Cultivated land was greatly reduced,construction land increased significantly,while the other class changed more gently.The level of land use was at the upper level,and the land use intensity is bigger.The strength of the land use was tenser from 2009 to 2014 than from 2003 to 2009.(2)Land use changed by slope,administrative center,transportation,population,policy and other factors.Guanghan had gentle topography,and suitable land for distribution is 0 to 15 °,15 ° more suitable than forest land.Through the establishment of the buffer it was concluded that the faster to reduce the closer administrative center and traffic arteries,cultivated land and forest land,the faster the increase of construction land.(3)CA-Markov model was established to predict land use situation in 2014,and the accuracy of inspection had proven that the model precision was high.Based on IDRISI,the establishment of index weights figure,making the land use suitability atlas,we got Guanghan 2014 land use forecast figure.Under examination,the relative error was within 15% around,the Kappa coefficient was 0.78.(4)Based on three scenarios forecast of land use pattern in 2020,the results showed that the three scenarios to predict land use pattern were difficult to achieve the optimal state.Under the three scenarios,Guanghan construction land was increased and cultivated land,water and other land was in decline,showing that Guanghan economy was still in the rapid development,and the city was still in the expansion.But in different situation,land use pattern was different.(5)Through the forecast of three kinds of land use structure optimization,we got the optimal land use pattern.Based on the forecasting results of cultivated land protection,optimized the urban construction land of economic center,the forest of ecological protection,and got the optimized land use structure.