A Study On Regional Land Use Structure Forecasting And Optimization

Land use structure refers to the proportion of all kinds of the land use pattern .It is the reflection of the disposition and use status of the land resource among every industry. It is the reflection of the proportionate relationship among all kinds of land use patterns too. The land use structure determines its function, and the rational land use structure can keep the land use system in benign cycle, can improve the comprehensive efficiency of the land use, can promote every department of regional national economy to develop in harmony, and then promote the sustainable development of social economy. To formulate and implement the rational regional land use tactic, we must understand the characteristic of the land use structure from different points of view and level, find the problems existing in the land use course, analyze the factor that influence the land use structure to change, explore the law that the land use structure changes, optimize the land distribution among every department of regional national economy, in order to maximizes the efficiency of the land use. Aimed at this, the article studies the land use structure of Yangzhou City systematically. The thesis mainly includes four parts as follows:Part one is study on the theory of land use structure. Firstly, the paper presents the definition of some correlative conception. Then, it analyses the theory basis of land use structure study, and establishes the theory system based on System theory, Land exiguity theory, Landscape ecology theory, Sustainable development theory and Harmony theory between land and people. Finally, the article introduces the methods to forecast and optimize land use structure, namely Markov chain model and linear programming.Part two is to forecast the land use structure of Yangzhou City. Firstly, it analyses its transformation course, including quantitative transformation, structural transformation and degree transformation. And then, the dissertation studies societal and economic factors that influence the transformation of land use structure of Yangzhou City. Finally, according to Markov chain model, it forecasts the land use structure of Yangzhou City in 2010 and 2020, reflecting its durative state.The third part is the optimization of the land use structure of Yangzhou City. Firstly, according to "the eleventh five-years" programming, the Ecology City Plan, and the development stratagem of land use planning in 2010, a linear programming model aimed at the optimization of economic benefit is established. The model is constituted of twelve variables and a series of restrictions. It's designed to optimize the land use structure of Yangzhou City. Then, a software named Lindo is run and an optimum structure is educed. Finally, its rationality and durative is analyzedThe fourth part is safeguard of the land use structure adjustment. The land use structure of Yangzhou City should be adjusted to obtain the maximal economic benefit, according to the aforementioned optimum structure. To achieve this object, the under-mentioned should be done. Firstly, the cultivated land should be protected strictly, to ensure the safety of food supplies. Secondly, the lead of planning to land use behaviors should be strengthened to economize the limited land resources. Thirdly, the environment should constructed better to pay equal attention to the use and protection of land resources. Fourthly, the land resources should be managed more scientifically and informationization.