Studies On Risk Assessment Involved In PPP Infrastructure Projects

At present,PPP(Public-Private Partnership)financing model is widely used in infrastructure.However,numerous financing model is included in it,and it is still in the stage of development in China,so how to manage the risk involved in PPP infrastructure projects is one of the bottleneck problem of project management,if you can't accurately evaluate project risk of each financing model on the basis of properly identify risk factors,the situation would become more complicated.In view of this,a method based on PCA-BP was proposed.In this paper,viewed from the project point,the potential risk of PPP Infrastructure projects was identified by screening and sorting out the existing literature of PPP infrastructure projects.Then,the questionnaire and research are designed to obtain the experts' evaluation data on the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage.The influence degree and weight of each index were calculated and the risk evaluation index system of PPP project including 4 levels,7 first level indexes and 36 second level indexes was set up.Next,and the paper selected 13 PPP infrastructure projects in Shanxi Province as samples to study the application of the risk assessment method based on PCA-BP,and the operation of BP neural network was realized by MATLAB 2010.The results showed the effectiveness of the PCA-BP method in risk assessment.In order to further demonstrate the superiority of PCA-BP neural network over single BP neural network,this paper made a comparative analysis on the same sample and proves the high efficiency of PCA-BP.Finally,according to the results of the risk assessment,this paper analyzed and evaluated the financing model and the return mechanism of the selected PPP infrastructure project,which providedthe theoretical basis for the project participants to carry out risk assessment of infrastructure projects under different modes.