An Empirical Study On The Change Of Corn Production Distribution And Its Driving Factors In China

The corn spatial distribution has changed significantly since 2000,north areas are prominent.However,the increasing in north brings the pressure of resources and environment,which is a new test for the corn sustainable development.The Ministry of Agriculture puts forward the “Guidance on the adjustment of corn production structure in the sickle bend area”,pointing out that it is necessary to reduce the non-dominant producing areas and continue to consolidate the dominant producing areas in November 2015.The central document of 2017 also points out that the structural adjustment of corn is the focus of structural reform of agricultural supply reform.It can be seen that the adjustment of corn production structure and regional distribution optimization are imperative in the context of accelerating the structural supply reform,and it needs to be promoted.Therefore,the paper focuses on the change of production space distribution and its driving factors,and provides some suggestions basis for the rational distribution of corn production space and the sustainable development of corn industry.Based on the theory of production space distribution and new spatial economics,the paper makes an empirical study on the change of Chinese corn production space and its driving factors from 2000 to 2014.At first,the production concentration index and production scale index are applied to analyze the change of corn production space in the province and north south areas,using corn yield and sown area data from 2000 to 2014.Then,the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation are adopted to study the spatial correlation of corn production.Furthermore,the spatial lag model is constructed to analyze the driving factors of corn production space distribution from 2000 to 2014.Conclusions are as follows:Firstly,based on the estimation of corn production concentration index and production scale index,it is found that corn production is mainly concentrated in the northern region,and its production spatial distribution changes obviously between provinces.At the same time,according to the concentration of corn production index and the change trend of production scale index,the main corn production provinces are divided into four types: continuous growth type,continuous decline type,steady type and fluctuation type.Secondly,there are some results about the spatial autocorrelation analysis of corn sown area from 2000 to 2014.The global Moran's I index shows that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between corn production and the spatial dependence.And with the passage of time,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of corn production have been strengthened from local Moran scatter.From the results of LISA agglomeration of local Moran index,the H-H agglomeration types of corn production are mainly distributed in the northern region in 2014,such as northeastern three provinces and neighboring Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and Shandong areas,L-L agglomeration type lies to the southeast coast for the gathering place,located in Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Fujian and Guangdong regions.Thirdly,the paper constructs the spatial econometric model to analyze the driving factors of corn production space distribution.The empirical results show that economic factors such as urbanization,non-agricultural employment and relative income are the key factors,which influence the change of corn production space distribution,in addition to the resource environment,market factors,technological progress and national policy factors.Among them,the urbanization and non-agricultural employment opportunities have a negative effect significantly on the corn production space distribution,and the relative benefits plays a positive role significantly in the corn production space distribution.It can be seen that corn production space distribution gradually turns to areas that urbanization rate and non-farm employment opportunities are low and relative income is relatively high.According to the above model,the paper puts forward optimization of corn production space recommendations.First and foremost,pay attention to the interaction effect of corn production space in the region,continue to consolidate the corn production in the dominant areas and reduce the non-dominated areas;At the second place,protect the corn land and farmers' planting income;Then,reduce the negative impact of employment opportunities on corn production and improve the planting skills of farmer;Lastly,increase agricultural policy support to mobilize farmers' enthusiasm.