Study On The Effect Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On The Price Of Imported Agricultural Products In China

In recent years,with the gradual internationalization of RMB,the exchange rate of RMB has attracted close attention both at home and abroad.In today's increasingly open economy,the exchange rate as an important factor affecting the price level of a country,the change of price transfer effect will inevitably lead to a country's import and export commodity price changes,which have an important impact on the domestic commodity prices.China is a large agricultural country with a large population.Meanwhile,it is also the producer and demand country of important agricultural products in the world.The import and export trade of agricultural products occupies a large proportion in China's international trade.The agricultural product price volatility,have a significant impact on the income of the farmers and agricultural development will,agricultural products price stability is related to the beneficial to the people's livelihood event,the RMB exchange rate changes impact on the import and export prices of agricultural products has important theoretical significance and practical significance.According to the traditional international trade theory,based on the Marshall Lerner condition under the influence of exchange rate on import and export commodities prices depends on the degree of exchange rate pass on the price of import and export commodities.Under the same conditions,the lower the price transfer rate of exchange rate changes,the smaller the impact of the change on the import and export prices.Therefore,the RMB exchange rate changes on the impact of China's agricultural products price changes,not only to study the change of RMB exchange rate is an important factor affecting China's import and export of agricultural product price change,also to study its changes can completely and timely to reflect the domestic agricultural product price,the RMB exchange rate transfer effect.This paper studies the transfer effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the import price of agricultural products in China.On the basis of combing the domestic and foreign research literature and the present situation of our country's imported agricultural products,select monthly data of RMB exchange rate and import price of agricultural products from January 2007 to January 2016,the RMB exchange rate and the price of imports of agricultural products in China,from the exchange rate pass on the price theory,using cointegration test and Grainger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance the decomposition of various econometric methods,the RMB exchange rate pass through effect on import prices of agricultural products in China through empirical analysis.The results show that the real effective exchange rate of a country's currency maintains a stable equilibrium relationship with the import price of agricultural products for a long time,and the relationship between them is one-way,and there is no cross impact.For a more comprehensive analysis of the RMB exchange rate pass through effect on import prices of agricultural products in China,this paper selects RMB exchange rate in Australia and the United States as a typical representative,further empirical analysis of exchange rate changes on import prices discrepancy of China's agricultural products transfer effect.The results show that the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on agricultural import volume varies from country to country,but the result of transfer effect is basically the same,and the law of exchange rate transmission can not be separated.Finally,this paper summarizes the whole paper and puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the development of China's agricultural products trade.