The Analysis On Influential Factors And Potential Of High-tech Product Trade Between China And America,Japan,Korea

High-tech products are environment-friendly and high value-added,whose development is useful to improve trade structure of a country.China always pays much attention to the development of high technology.The implementation of various plans and strategies makes Chinese trade become outstanding in world market.The ratio of high-tech products trade between China and the United States,China and Japan,as well as China and South Korea in bilateral trade is very high.Therefore,the change of high technology trade will exert great influence on Chinese trade.The thesis chose OECD standard on high-tech product to make classification of China and the United States,Japan,South Korea high-tech product trade.Afterwards,the analysis of current trade situation found out that the ratio of high-tech product trade in total trade grew year by year,but the growth rate declined in recent year.In addition,gap among different technology-intensive product trade is very significant and regional distribution is uneven.In 2000-2015,bilateral high-tech product trade between China-The United States,China-Japan and China-South Korea increased generally and their trade development tendency is similar.Before 2006,China and these three countries' bilateral high-tech product trade increased rapidly.In 2006-2010,the trade decreased and adjusted itself under financial crisis.Trade amount went back up after 2010,but it went down once again in 2015.In empirical analysis,the thesis chose eleven variables to testify true influential factors on China-the United States,China-Japan and China-South Korea bilateral high-tech product trade and export.Firstly,the thesis chose mixed effect model according to the characteristics of variable regression to return before the unit root test and cointegration test.Unit root test proves that the selected data are not stable,but cointegration test confirms that these instable variables had certain kind of long-term and stable relationship.The regression result showed that eight of eleven factors influenced high-tech product trade between China and the United States,Japan,South Korea,including gross national product of the two countries,China's R&D expense as a share of GDP,trade partners' R&D expense as a share of GDP,labor productivity and land area,the dollar/yuan exchange rate has positive impact on trade,Chinese labor productivity and the distance between two countries generates negative impact.In China's high-tech products exports to The United States,South Korea and Japan,here are five influential factors,including gross national product of two countries,China's R&D expense as a share of GDP,trade partners' labor productivity,exchange rate and the distance between two countries.Finally,according to the regression model to calculate China and The United States,Japan,South Korea's high-tech products trade and export trade the theoretical value.Comparing theoretical value and practical value of trade,China and these three countries high-tech products trade and export development is relatively sufficient in 2000-2016,but theoretical value of high technology product trade exceed ? its actual value in recent years,and the gap is widening.Therefore,the trade and export potential of China and the United States,Japan,South Korea's high-tech products can be further exploited.