Treatment-effect Estimation: The Effect Of Establishment Of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone On The Local Property Price

Using the approach suggested by Hsiao,Ching and Wan(2012),which is based on the factor model,this paper explores the impact of China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone on the local property price,that is the difference between the real local property price and the counterfactual property price.With the panel data of property price of provinces in China,this paper shows that China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone has positive influence on the average property price in Shanghai,but the time when property price begin to be affected and the degrees of impact on the different kinds of commercial housing would be different.China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone raised the property price by 26.47%.For the different kinds of commercial housing,home price was affected greatly after releasing the news of China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone would be set up.The impact on the price of office building was weaker and started from China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone set up formally.The impact on the price of commercial houses started from the releasing of the news of China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone would be set up,but for the whole period we discuss in this paper,the impact was insignificant.In the end,we take the robustness check,it shows that the conclusion holds true under choices of policy implementation point and variable selection criteria,and we also use annual growth rate of property price to estimate the treatment-effect,which is consistent with the result before.