Research On The Risk Influencing Factors Of Chinese Log Import And Countermeasures

China is a big country of log consumption and shortage of forest resource.The wood actual supply capacity is limited resulted form the strong demand growth of domestic timber,low yield plantations and unreasonable age structure problems.Under this background,the main way to solve Chinese timber supply and demand gap are to import other countries' logs and broaden the log supply channels.But with the decreasing of global forest resources and the ecological environment continuous deteriorating,countries for the protection of national ecological security have restricted the export of logs.Our country has higher risks dependent on excessive imports.Also it will effect on the long-terms sustainable development for forestry and the processing industry.With the growing quantity of timber imports,they are the priority factors policy-makers have considered,such as the risk problems of log imports,the level of import risks and the impacts of various factors,to ensure the import stability.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current trade situation of Chinese log imports from the view of the qualitative point.lt selects among 2000-2015 time series datas of Chinese log production and domestic consumption amount,the description of import volume and import values.Next it clarifies two kinds of log for the needle and broad leaf import quantities and price changes.The needle logs for rapid growth have occupied the larger share of imports.This paper also explores the import source structure of original wood,the concentration and dependence of Chinese log imports.At the same time,it predicts the development space of log market.That is to say,in the future imports of log will still show the increasing situation with amount and price.Secondly,from the macro level this paper has explored the country,legal,resource and economic risk factors,using the HHI index,S-W index and the R risk index to measure the risk level of log import.Study found that the risk has been decentralized but there is a growing trend.Then based on the micro perspective using Multiple Linear Regression Model analyzes the influence efforts of various risk factors.Results show that:log volumes,the international market price of logs,wood products and furniture export volume have positive effect on the import risk,the above variables will increase the import risk;influence of domestic timber yield and the exchange rate are negative to the import risk.Increasing supplying and exchange rate helps to reduce dependency on import.Among them,the log volumes is the most significant factors,the weakest of the man-made board.Finally,based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,the paper proposes the prevention countermeasures and suggestions,such as accelerating upgrading the wood industry transformation;enh-ancing the ability of domestic timber supply;diversifying of import sources;raising awareness of inner risk control for enterprises;flexiblely using financial derivative instruments;establishing the price warning mechanism for log imports;choosing reasonable means of settlement accounts etc.