A Study On The Effect Of Population Aging On The Technical Structure Of Export Products

Export trade is important to the growth of economy,and the technical structure of export products plays a more effective role in the long-term growth of economy compared with the export volume.There are great differences in the technical structure of export products between countries.For the reasons of this difference,scholars have done a lot of research.Domestic and foreign scholars have studied the effect of the income,resource endowments,foreign direct investment,infrastructure on the technical structure of export products and concluded a series of results.However,few scholars have studied the possible impact of the demographic structure on the technological structure of export products.On the background of population aging,this paper studies the relationship between the technical structure of export products and the aging of population.This paper establishes the mathematical model to analyze the impact of population aging on export comparative advantage,and proves that the population aging affects the comparative advantage of labor-intensive products negatively.Due to the limitation of mathematical model,this paper analyzes the effect of human capital accumulation,labor cost,R&D investment effect,aging burden effect,local market demand effect and their different influence on the technological structure of export products.Meanwhile,this paper uses the data of transnational panel to carry on the empirical analysis.The overall sample regression results show that population aging is generally beneficial to the technological structure of the export products.The regression of the sample shows that the impact of aging on the technical structure in OECD countries is more significant than the effect in other countries.In order to solve the problem of endogeneity,this paper uses the war tool variable for the elderly dependency rate,and the impact of population aging is more significant.Then this paper tests the channel effect of population aging.The results show that the human capital accumulation effect,the R&D investment effect improve the technical structure of the export products and aging burden effect has a negative impact on the technical structure of the export products.In addition,this paper further analyses the effect of population aging on the export products of each technical level.The results show that the population aging has negative effects on primary products,agricultural processing products,other resource products,textile and apparel products,and has positive effects on other low-tech products,automotive industrial products,technology processing products,engineering machinery products,electronic power products,other high-tech products have a positive influences.Finally,this paper puts forward policy suggestions that China government should improve human capital investment,encourage enterprises to strengthen R&D investment and improve capital utilization efficiency.