| At the end of 2014,a new round of bull market aroused the development of private securities fund industry once again.According to Asset Management Association of China,as of December 31,2017,66418 private investment funds have been filled,including 32216 security funds which invest in the secondary market(accounting for 48.5%),and subscribed scale broke 2 trillion RMB.More and more investors pay attention to it.However,the number of private equity funds that have been forced to clear up due to poor performance has been highly innovative.When more and more private equity funds go to the market to meet different needs of investors,investors,especially non-professional investors,are also faced with the problem of failing to judge the value of these complex funds and the corresponding risks.In this context,we need to further study the composition of the private placement fund,calculate the value of the product with the appropriate pricing model,and draw the final conclusion based on the comparison of its risk.In this paper,we use the method of case analysis and model research to analyze the value of investment from two dimensions,using the method of case analysis and model research.The results show that the private equity fund has an investment value,and the average return rate of the simulated maturity date is 6.35%,which is higher than the average rate of 4.79% in the same period.In order to verify the simulation results,the verification of real data is basically consistent with the simulation results,and the results of investment value analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation are reliable.In addition,according to the sensitivity analysis,the fund yield based on the Monte-Carlo simulation is related to the historical income rate of input,the standard deviation sigma,and whether there are additional credit conditions.Finally,according to the conclusion,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for regulators,fund managers and investors respectively. |
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