| As an important basic energy, oil is regarded as the "blood" of modern industry. As a non-renewable energy, the output and price level of crude oil price fluctuates with respect to world production and economic growth due to its unique production mechanism and price mechanism. As an important factor of production, crude oil price fluctuations, by affecting the price of factors, finished goods prices and output level, affect macroeconomic fields such as social price level, labor employment, production department proportion, etc. As the world's biggest traded bulk stock, crude oil endowment difference decides that crude oil price fluctuations profoundly influence trade activities, monetary policy, and then affect the entire economic growth and economic development quality of different economies. The purpose of this paper lies in using the modern economic theory and research of transmission mechanism by which oil prices influence macroeconomic, combining cross-nation reality, focuses on exchange rate transmission mechanism by which oil prices affect macro economy, analyzes oil prices'influence on the international balance of payments, terms of trade and economic growth of different economies, and analyzes the readjustment function of different exchange rate policy, industrial policy and monetary policy to the exchange rate transmission mechanism, to give suggestions to marketization reform of oil supply and demand, exchange rate, trade and industry policies in our country, under the environment of rising oil external dependence and marketization reforms of RMB exchange rate and refined oil pricing.This paper will be divided into five chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces background, purpose and significance of topic choice, literature review and the idea and main method of research.The second chapter analyzes the economic characteristic of oil, and demonstrates the relationship of oil and world economic growth.The third chapter first expounds main transmission mechanisms through which oil price influence macro economy, then through a three-country model and cross-nation analysis demonstrates the relations of oil prices and balance-of-payments, and discusses the theory mechanism of the influence of oil price fluctuations on China's real effective exchange rate.The fourth chapter includes empirical analysis, by establishing a cross-nation SVAR model, analyzes different effects of oil price change on real effective exchange rate and economic development of monetary exporting country(USA), oil exporting country (Saudi Arabia) and commodity exporting country (China), verifies exchange rate transmission mechanism of oil price.The fifth chapter summarizes the conclusion, tries to find out policy countermeasures to oil price shocks, and acknowledgements and future research direction was discussed. |
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