A Study On Trade Dependence Relationship Among China,Russia And Tajikistan

Since 1990s,China?Russia and Tajikistan have made rapid development in trade relationship.At present,China has become the second economy entity in the world and has became Russia's largest trading partner as well as the second trading partner of Tajikistan.Tajikistan is also Russia's important trading partner and exporting country and overseas investor,the increasingly close relationship among the three countries which has become an indispensable economic growth indispensable impetus in the area.In order to further analyze the foreign trade among the three countries,this paper chooses the comparative analysis of the trade relations among China-Russia,Russia-China,China-Tajikistan,Tajikistan-China,Tajikistan-Russia and Russia-Tajikistan.As a sample to compares the data from 1992 to 2015.It shows that:Tajikistan's trade dependence on China's increased year by year,Tajikistan's economic development dependent on China;Tajikistan has high trade dependence rate to Russia,They have traditional friendship;China's trade dependence to Russia which has been relatively stable,Russia's trade dependence to China are getting higher and higher.Affecting the three countries' trade dependence factors include GDP,total trade,exchange rates and major industrial output value,science and education level.The trade dependency of the three countries from low to high are:China-Taj ikistan,Russia-Tajikistan,China-Russia,Russia-China,Tajikistan-Russia,Tajikistan-China.Because the value of import and export is an important index to reflect the dependence of trade,VAR model regression analysis,Grange causality test and impulse response analysis are carried out.Regression analysis concluded that China's exports to Russia on its pre-export trade behavior,Russia's pre-export trade behavior in China,Tajikistan's dependence on China's early export trade are increasing,while China's Tajikistan Of the pre-export trade behavior is dependent on the decline.The Granger causality test for four variables concluded that China's exports to Tajikistan were the reason for China's imports from Tajikistan,and that China's exports to Russia were also the reason for China's imports from Tajikistan.Through the impulse response analysis concluded that:China's imports from Tajikistan LNCTIM from China to Tajikistan exports LNCTEX external impact,China's imports from Russia LNCRIM external impact and its own pre-shocks have shown a positive response,and from China to Russia Exports of LNCREX external shocks show positive response,post-negative response characteristics;China from Tajikistan imports LNCTIM from all four types of shocks have shown a trend of stability after the first fluctuations,the impact of four shocks on China's imports from Tajikistan are Is long and stable.Based on the above researches,this paper proposes to strengthen mutual political trust among the three countries,strengthen economic cooperation and promote cultural exchanges;build a free trade area,promote the process of industrial integration,strengthen the institutional mechanism;through multilateral development banks to finance the development of the three countries.To strengthen cooperation at high-tech field,Enhancing trade dependence among three nations and balance the trade deficit,reducing the financial crisis' influences.