An Empirical Analysis On The Export Trade Of Service Industry In TISA Members And China

With the development of industrialization,the service industry has become an important part of international trade and international investment.The structure of service industy has gradually changed from the traditional consumer service industry to a new type of productive service industry.We decompose service export value into three margins to analyze the members' export growth pattern.This paper studies the basic pattern of the export market of service trade and analyses the characteristics and influencing factors of the three margins of export about TISA member states and China,which is of great practical significance to grasp the new trends of the development of trade in services and China's policy formulation.First of all,this paper reviews the basic concepts of international trade in service and related literatures.Study the basic pattern of international trade in services of TISA member countries and China according to the methods of Yin Feng and Chen Xian(2009),using the trade scale and the average annual growth rate,the export market share index and the TC index.To sum up,high income countries have an absolute advantage in the productive services and consumer services,and have a comparative advantage in the productive services.While low income countries have comparative advantage in the consumer services.Secondly,we decompose service export value into three margins,by using method of Hummels Klenow(2002)and Kong Qingfeng(2015).We found that the export of productive services in high income countries mainly depend on the technical intensive margin or the extensive margin,while the export of consumer services mainly depend on the quantity intensive margin and technical intensive margin.We also found that the export of productive services in low income countries mainly depend on the technical intensive margin,while consumer services mainly depend on the quantity intensive margin and technical intensive margin,but technical level is much lower than high income countries.Thirdly,this paper analyzes influencing factors of the three margins of export from theoretical and empirical perspectives.Selecting the three margins of service export as explained variable,the total factor productivity(p),trade cost(c),human capital(l),technical differences(g),the stock of fixed capital(k)and commodity trading volume(e)as explanatory variables.Using the panel data of 1995~2007,this paper establishes the econometric model of high income countries and low income countries.The conclusion see table 6-1.Finally,this paper gives the following policy recommendations:(1)Make full use of the advantage of human capital in China.(2)China should pay more attention to the service industry,especially the development of productive services,and constantly improve the proportion of service industry in the national economy.(3)The policy and system of service trade in China should pay attention to reduce the sunk costs of entry or exit the service trade market.(4)Promoting the coordinated development of commodity trade and service trade.