The Research Of Export Effects Of China's Direct Investment In Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

Affected by the overall downturn in the current international economy,China's export growth slowed down,there is even a decline in the export in 2015.Domestically,insufficient domestic demand ?overcapacity and other problems will emerge further under the new normal,so it is very important to seek a new driving force for export growth.As the two ways to participate in economic globalization,the relationship between direct investment and export trade has been the focus in academic research.With the further implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt strategy,China's direct investment and export to these countries will all increase rapidly.So,is there a certain relationship between them? Does the growth of former affect the latter? If yes,how about its extent? Moreover,does China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt improve the China's industrial structure indirectly? With the further development of the strategy,China's direct investment and export to countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt are bound to make a rise.So,it is extremely valuable to study the whole and country effects of the direct investment on the export.This paper analyzes the theory of direct investment's export trade effects firstly,and then summarizes the status of China's direct investment and export to countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.In empirical analysis part,this paper considers the Silk Road Economic Belt as a whole and selects eight countries comprehensively,adopts the outward direct investment?total export of goods and capital technology intensive products' export in 2005—2015,and then establishs nine time series models to study the whole and country export effects of China's OFDI in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,the conclusions are as follows: Firstly,the export scale effect of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is creation;Secondly,China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt improves China's export structure;Thirdly,the whole export effect of China's investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt outweighs the country export effect;Fourthly,there is a country's difference in export effect of China's investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,export scale effect from high to low is: the United Arab Emirates?Iran?Russia?Pakistan?India?Saudi Arabia?Turkey?Kazakhstan;export structure improvement from large to small is: Russia?the United Arab Emirates?Saudi Arabia?Iran?Kazakhstan?India?Pakistan?Turkey;Fifthly,whatever in whole or country's difference,the export structure effect of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is generally higher than the export scale effect.Although the export effects of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt are positive,but the pulling effects of investment are still relatively small,this is undoubtedly related to the small stock of China's direct investment in countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt.In the future,with the further implement of the Silk Road Economic Belt strategy,China's direct investment in countries along it is bound to make a rise,export effects of direct investment will be improved.