Research On Export Effect Of China’s Foreign Investment Under "The Belt And Road" Initiative

International trade is one of the conditions for China’s sustained and rapid economic growth.However,the current trend of trade protection in various countries is constantly rising,and anti-dumping investigations on import commodity are becoming more and more strict.which has made a bad impact for China’s export trade.China’s traditional trade advantage is weakening and it is urgent to seek new trade development momentum."The Belt and Road" initiative offers a broader platform for the cooperation of foreign investment and trade.It not only opens up new markets for foreign trade in China,but also greatly enhances the level of investment facilitation for countries along the route.At present,China’s foreign investment shows a good development trend.Under the current grim situation of foreign trade,it is a question worth pondering that whether it is possible to open up new trade markets and relieve trade dilemma through the "Belt and Road",and create new development conditions for trade by foreign investment.This paper aims to explore the effects of China’s foreign investment on exports,and further verify the effect of policy implementation of "the Belt and Road" initiative and evaluate its impact on the export effects of China’s foreign investment.Finally,this paper suggests some policy recommendations according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results.In the research method,this paper combines the theoretical research and empirical analysis together.Firstly,this paper sorts out the relevant theoretical research on the trade effect of foreign investment,explores the transmission mechanism of investment on trade,and summarizes the export effects on different types of foreign investment.Then this paper analyzes the "the Belt and Road" Initiative and the current status of China’s foreign investment and trade.On this basis,combined with relevant theories,this paper theoretically analyzes the export effects of China’s foreign investment and puts forward reasonable theoretical assumptions.Finally,according to the trade gravity model,this paper establishes a panel fixed effect model,and constructs the matching samples based on the propensity score matching method(PSM).Then this paper establishes a difference in differences model(DID),these models aim to find the export effect of China’s foreign investment and the impact of "the Belt and Road" initiative.On the basis of above results,this paper further studies the effect on countries with different income level,and establish an export lag effect model of investment to analyze the sustainability of the export effect.The study found that China’s foreign investment has a substitution effect on exports as a whole,and this effect is more obvious in developed countries with high income levels.However,China’s investment in "the Belt and Road" region has a promoting effect on exports.This effect has been strengthened with the development of "the Belt and Road".At present,although "the Belt and Road" Initiative has not directly promoted China’s export trade,it has improved the level of investment facilitation in China and countries along the route,and has a significant positive effect on the export effect of direct investment,which can improve the current challenges of China’s trade.In the future,we should vigorously develop investment in the "Belt and Road" region,pay attention to the type of investment,balance the location distribution and industry structure,and use investment to promote trade development,gradually improve the uneven distribution of investment and trade,achieve the goal of improving investment and trade together.