Research On The Relationship Between China's Direct Investment And Export Trade In "One Belt And One Road" Asian Countries

The relationship between trade and investment has always been a hot economic issue.At the same time,Foreign direct investment and export trade is also a key part of the policy of opening to the outside world.The expansion of foreign direct investment affects the development of export trade,And the increase of export trade also affects the development of foreign direct investment.Under Belt and Road's initiative,The Asian countries along the route,As important nodes of the "Belt and Road" countries,Are more closely related to China's trade and investment.Especially for China,China's direct investment and export trade to Asian countries along the route have developed rapidly.However,Some of the problems between this trade and investment have not yet been fully resolved.For example,What is the relationship between the two?Are the two mutually reinforcing?If so,Which one is more catalytic?And whether it has a regional effect?In view of these problems,This paper analyzes the relationship between China's foreign direct investment and export trade with the background of "Belt and Road" Asian countries.Therefore,It is of great practical significance to study the relationship between China's direct investment and export trade to Asian countries along the route.This paper studies the relationship between trade and investment through the following ideas: Firstly,The paper introduces the benchmark situation of Belt and Road,And divides the Asian country into three different regions.At the same time,It expounds the current situation of China's direct investment and export trade to Belt and Road.Secondly,The influence mechanism of China's foreign direct investment and export trade is analyzed theoretically.This paper analyzes the mechanism of its influence on export trade from the point of view of foreign direct investment,And analyzes its influence mechanism on foreign direct investment from the point of view of export trade.Thirdly,The relationship between them is analyzed empirically.Based on the relevant panel data of 24 Asian countries along Belt and Road from 2006 to 2016,On the one hand,Taking China's foreign direct investment as the core variable,An extended trade gravity model is constructed to study the impact of China's foreign direct investment on export trade.On the other hand,Taking China's export trade as the core variable,This paper constructs an extended investment gravity model to study the impact of export trade on China's foreign direct investment.At the same time,Based on the view of Asian countries and regions along the route,The dynamic panel GMM estimation method is used to study the relationship between them.Finally,According to the results of empirical analysis,This paper puts forward corresponding suggestions from three aspects: enterprise,industry association and government.Through the analysis of the above steps,We can draw the following conclusion: Firstly,Both total sample regression and sub-sample regression,China's foreign direct investment and export trade have mutual promotion effect.In other words,China's direct investment and export trade to Belt and Road Asian countries are complementary.Secondly,In the total sample regression,The positive effect of China's outward direct investment on export trade is lower than that of the latter on the former.In sub-sample regression,The positive effects of China's direct investment on export trade in Southeast Asia and West Asia are lower than those of the latter.However,The positive effect of China's direct investment in South-Central Asia on export trade is higher than that of the latter on the former.Thirdly,Both total sample regression and sub-sample regression,The core influencing factors of this complementary relationship are not "destination countries sign free trade agreements with China","destination countries and China sign bilateral investment agreements" and other trade and investment facilitation factors have great influence.