Research On The Method Of A-share Stock Selection Based On Long-term Investment

After years of development,China's stock market has been a quite scale and become more and more important,The outline of the thirteenth five-year plan published in 2016 pointed out to improve the financial market system,make the capital market more open and transparent to develop healthily,and create conditions for registered system,The CSRC has advocated value investing and long-term investing for many times,especially after the abnormal fluctuation of the stock market in 2015,anyway,The long-term investing based on value and growth is the trend of investing.Stock selection is the first step of investment,This paper focuses on the study of A-shares selection method based on the long-term investment,in addition to factors based on value and growth,macro market factor is innovatively taken into consideration for long-term investors,combined with the 2015 stock market abnormal fluctuation,the ratio of margin trading to negotiable market cap is added into selection factors,considering the stock selection factors is hard to choose,the theory of Vague sets is used to select the key factors,and using multiple attribute comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate and find stocks of high long-term investment value,and then analyse the history data to prove it,especially the data during the abnormal fluctuation period in 2015,the results shows that: 1,macro market factor should be considered by long-term investors.2,Most of the stocks selected by using the method of multiple attribute comprehensive evaluation have long-term investment value,the method is useful.3,The selected stocks tend to be repeated,which proves the effectiveness of the method,also verify the effectiveness of "Matthew effect" in the stock market.4,The stock selection method may inevitably flawed,and will miss some stocks of high long-term investment value,and also choose some stocks of low long-term investment value,but on the whole,the method can provide a reference for long-term investors,which makes a certain theoretical significance and important practical application significance.