The Dynamic Evolution Of Vulnerability For Resources-exhausting Cities

The development of resource-based cities is great significance to the sustainable development of China's economy,the transformation of industrial structure,energy security and the construction of resource-saving society.However,with the continuous development of resources,the coal,oil,natural gas and other natural resources as a primary energy will be slowly depleted.The cities that rely on natural resources will be confronted with development bottlenecks,which is because of the depletion of resources.At present,the resources-exhausting cities are mainly faced with a series of problems,such as the shanty area,the single structure of the industrial structure and the lack of economic power.Therefore,it is necessary to take a scientific approach to study the resource-reclamation cities,which can help them get rid of "resource depletion".In the research of urban development,the vulnerability has been the hotspot for the research of city.Based on the previous studies of urban vulnerability,this paper studies the vulnerability of 23 resources-exhausting cities in China from 2003 to 2014.First,from the aspects of economic,social and environmental subsystems,the evaluation system of the vulnerability for the resources-exhausting cities has been constructed in this paper.The "sensitivity-adaptability" is used as the analysis frame,and then the vulnerability is measured by the geometric mean method.Secondly,the spatial evolution of vulnerability is explored through Spatial Moran's I,Global Moran's I and LISE analysis.Finally,the support vector machine(SVM)prediction model and the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)model are constructed.The least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)model is selected to predict the vulnerability in the next four years.The results show that the vulnerability of 23 cities has strong spatial correlation,showing spatial agglomeration.The high and high aggregation areas are mainly distributed in the northeast of China,and the low and low aggregation areas are mainly distributed in the middle and south of China.Among them,the cities that Yichun,Hegang,Qitaihe and Shuangyashan in Heilongjiang province are exposed to higher vulnerability,and has a strong correlation,it is difficult that these cities get rid of the depletion of resources difficulties.In accordance with the current development trend,the vulnerability value of most cities begins to decrease and then decline in the next four years.However,the city of Hegang is faced with high vulnerability,andIt is high in 2015-2018 yet.Its vulnerability value nearly twice that in the low vulnerability cities for Tongling and Jingdezhen.Therefore,in order to help the resource-declining cities growing sustainably,we should change the current development pattern,and should develop a differentiated program according to the different regional.For example,the government should give full support to the urban development of heilongjiang Province,and we can take Hegang as the center to explore its new industry development model.At the same time,less vulnerable cities should develop their competitive industries to maintain and continuously improve the city's stability.