Comprehensive Evaluation And Forecast Of Urban Development Level In Shandong Province In The Development Of New Urbanization

During the development of the 12th Five-Year Plan,Shandong Province put forward the outline of urbanization development according to the requirements of the scientific development concept of the new period.Based on the requirements in the new urbanization in Shandong Province,this paper makes an empirical study on the level of urban development in Shandong Province from the three aspects which are urban development classification,the level of urban development and the prospect of new urbanization in Shandong Province.We select 33 urban development indexes of 17 prefecture-level cities from Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province.After normalizing the data,we extract 3 principal components to evaluate the 33 indexes,the comprehensive score and ranking of the prefecture-level cities are calculated by constructing the comprehensive score function.Then,we also choose system clustering method and k-means clustering method to conduct clustering analysis and finally get the following conclusions:the overall development level of the eastern part of Shandong Peninsula is better than that of the western region.Among them,Qingdao,Jinan,Yantai and Weifang are better than the other prefecture-level cities.However,the western cities perform poorly in comprehensive evaluation,such as Liaocheng,Zaozhuang and Heze.In addition,in order to make a forecast for the urbanization level of Shandong Province,we use the urbanization level data from 2002 to 2016 and choose Northam curve model,GM(1,1)gray prediction model and local linear nonparametric method to model and forecast,respectively.According to the forecast results,it is found that the urbanization level in Shandong Province can be achieved in 2020.Finally,based on the research results,we put forward the specific suggestions for the development of Shandong Province.