A Study On The Relationships Between China's Corn NET Imports And Its Price At Home And Aborad

Corn is one of the most important crops in our country.With the rapid development of related industries,corn plays more and more important roles in the domestic agricultural economy.The international trade of corrn is one of the methods for our country to use of the international market in purpose of balance supply and demand about domestic corn,as well as reduce domestic corn prices volatility.As the number of corn imports growing,China has become a net importer of corn in 2010 and the quantity of corn imports continued to rise.At the same time,corn prices show a rising trend as a whole.But in 2015,corn prices became lower.With the increase of China's imports and the speeding up of domestic corn market into the international market,the corn international price will influence the domestic spot market price by the trade routes of the futures market.In order to ensure price stability and healthy development of agricultural economy,regulating the price of corn will become an important goal of equilibrium price.This article first analysis the overall situation and the characteristics of China's corn import trade.Then we use the VAR model to analysis the relationship between the trade quantity and prices.Finally,we summarize the main research conclusion and put forward the corresponding policy Suggestions from the supply and demand,import,information monitoring and the futures market,looking for the corn balance between supply and demand in China.The results show that our country is corn production and consumption power.Now,while imports increased year by year,but China's corn imports accounted for the proportion of domestic consumption and imports the world is less than 10%,and in the international market.China's corn imports structure is still relatively concentrated,mainly comes from the United States,Myanmar,Laos,Vietnam and other countries.But in different periods,the import source will change in the main countries,exist inter-annual variability.Overall,the domestic market price of corn is higher than the international market,Corn futures market price volatility and reaction velocity is larger than the spot market.China's corn imports with domestic and international long-term co-integration relationship between the prices.For the domestic market,Dalian futures price affect the spot market price of corn and the spot market pric of corn affect the volume of corn import.For the foreign market,the intenational market pieces affect the volume of corn import.The international market price of corn on the domestic market prices for corn has single asymmetric price transfer function.when it comes to the foreign and domestic,the USA spot price of corn affect Dalian future prices,then affect the spot price in domestic,at the last affect the volume of corn import.Variance decomposition results show that the futures market was mainly affected by the spot market,spot market and imports mainly influenced by its variance.