The Impact Of Macro-Prudential Policies On Property Prices

After the reform and opening up,China has proposed a series of reforms aimed at the macro-control system of real estate.The real estate industry in our country has reached a new height,becoming a pillar industry in our country.With the fast development of economy,the greatly increasing of income of Chinese citizens and the natural law of market,the demand of house exceeds supply which causes the price of house rising rapidly.There is the precedent that the national economy got the great damage because of the foam accumulation cause by the fast development of real estate industry and excessive rising of house price.It is recognized openly all over the world that the effect of macro prudence policy is more obvious than other policies in controlling the house price.Central Bank brings the real estate industry into the consideration range of macro prudence policy is aiming to control the full rising speed of house price to promote the stable development of rel estate industry.It also benefit for the steady development of financial market and the national economy of our country.So discussing the influence relation between macro prudence policy and house price and putting forward corresponding policy suggestion by finding the economic law behind it have the fairly important practical significance.In view of the severity of financial crisis in 2008,this paper chooses the quarterly data of house price from 2005 to 2015 as well as corresponding interest rate,monetary aggregate,loan value rate,GDP increasing rate,lever ratio and the consumer price index and adopts LTV as the proxy variable of macro prudence.Adopt the VAR model to test the effect of macro prudence on the house price and analyze the regulation effect,mode of action and optimal policy mix of macro prudence policy.The research shows that the fluctuation of house price is the main causes of systematic financial risk.While the oneness of monetary policy regulation cannot achieve the financial stability completely.For adjusting and controlling of house price,it shall properly apply the macro prudence policy.The proxy variable LTV of macro prudence policy is adopted to restrain the load behavior of citizens.The most effective way of reducing the house prices fluctuation can be achieved by coordinating with other proper policies.Although there are some documents about the influence of macro prudence policy on house price studied by foreign scholars,the defects can be found by carefully clearing up the present related documents of macro prudence regulation.Firstly,theory is separated with the practice.it is not analyzed by combing theory and practice.Secondly,panoramic analysis of macro prudence frame is lacking the research of a certain specific policy instrument.Thirdly,the domestic research is only focusing on the relationship between the monetary policy and house price.Fourth,even if there is the research about macro prudence,it is mainly starting from the aspect of its effect on the whole financial industry.While the documents about the effect of macro prudence policy on the house price by analyzing both theory and practice is rare.So based on the previous research,this paper specifically utilize the mode to test the practical effect of macro prudence policy on house price and puts forward the actual policy measurement.And analyze the regulation effect,mode of action and optimal policy mix of macro prudence policy.It helps to explore the influence mechanism of macro prudence on house price and better control the house price.