The Effect Of The Restriction Policy:An Empirical Study Based On Housing Volume-Price Relationship

After the 2008 financial crisis, China’s real estate market has experienced price soar, volume and price down, the price rise of the volume down. The fluctuations of the real estate market is not only affected by the economic environment, and government regulation also frequently inseparable. In April 2010, the State Council launched a policy to limit the purchase of housing, but this is only a temporary measure. Since then, the city launched the restriction rules, the implementation of housing purchase restrictions on the family, lots, price etc.. To October 2014, in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya are still clear implementation of the restriction, the other 41 cities have quit or relaxed the purchase. However, the purchase of large cities idle housing has not yet formed a consensus.The in Shanghai as an example, using VAR model analysis of purchase before and after the relationship between volume and price changes, to determine the purchase of policy implementation is through inhibition of speculative demand, thereby reducing market trading, making prices return to rational. Followed by impulse response function, we give a positive impact on the standard deviation of the trading volume of a unit, to determine the degree of continuity and impact of the restriction policy. In addition, price fluctuations under the influence of many factors, this paper bases on the supply and demand model, from the perspective of property buyers and developers of partial equilibrium analysis that the effect of price fluctuations contain many variables restriction. Then add the restriction variables, through the gradual return to verify the theoretical model, and verify the long-term effect of the restriction policy. Empirical results show that the Shanghai residential market volume and price conduction smooth, idle housing for the purchase of the policy have the effect, but only in the short term effective also need the long-term mechanism to protect. The price fluctuation is also affected by the factors such as credit, market expectation, land price and so on. To stabilize the market price return is reasonable from multiple angles. Finally, policy recommendations are given to explore the real estate control policy in the new situation, how to maintain stable fluctuations in real estate prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.