Research On Risk Assessment And Shsring Of PPP Subway Project

With the development of new urbanization strategy, local governments have put the focus of work to the construction of infrastructure. Meanwhile government funding alone has been unable to meet the huge demand for infrastructure investment, so the PPP model which attract private capital to promote the construction of infrastructure,is an effective way to ease the financial difficulties of the government coordination and the shortage of funds for infrastructure construction. At the same time, with the development of Chinese, the traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious, and many areas have to strengthen the construction of the subway project using PPP mode to deal with this problem. In the operation process of PPP rail project, the project risk management improper handling may result in loss or even failure. The reason lies in the risk management are still containing many problems which need further study, for example: some risks cannot be correctly identified, cannot effectively evaluate, and cannot be clearly defined and deal with between the two sides. This article will expand related research focus on these issues.This article studies from the project decomposition and risk decomposition to find out all kinds of risk factors of PPP in different phases of the subway project, and constructs the WBS-RBS risk identification matrix, After classifying and summarizing,the author found 6 first level risk, and 32 two level risk are identified.After identifying the risks the article evaluates the risks effectively with the method of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. And the article builds risk assessment system with the risk factors identified, construct the index set, and investigate the possibility of risk in the project using questionnaire which results are aggregated to construct the membership matrix of each risk indicator, and use expert scoring method to rate the relative degree of influence of each risk, and get the weight of each different risk factor with the method of AHP, finally evaluate these risk factors with the method of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Because of different subjects have different risk preference for the same risk; the risk sharing based on it to develop a risk sharing game model, then builds a risk-sharing framework process. Firstly the article determines the risk by one party alone by the method of static game, and determines the sharing ratio of risk which cannot be borne by the parties in a single through the dynamic bargaining model.Finally, this article takes the Qingdao Metro Line 4 as an example to identify the risk of the project, carries on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and finally, simulates the process of risk sharing.