Research On Risk Management Of Subway Projects Under PPP Mode

Since the "13th Five-Year Plan",China has vigorously promoted the PPP mode to provide an efficient and convenient way of investment and financing for public infrastructure construction and public service projects.Once promoted,this model not only alleviates the financial pressure of the government but also improves the efficiency of fund management.At the same time,the state has issued a number of policies to guide the implementation of the PPP mode,accelerating the marketoriented transformation of public infrastructure from full government investment and operation to social capital franchise.In recent years,PPP mode has been widely used in China’s subway construction.However,opportunities are accompanied by risks,and some potential high-quality social capital is discouraged from cooperation due to unknown risk factors such as political risk,economic risk and cooperation risk.In order to build the confidence of social capital and promote the application of PPP mode in subway construction,how to effectively identify risks and form risk countermeasures has become a top priority.Based on the review of domestic and foreign literatures on the risk management of PPP projects,this paper takes Harbin Metro Line 2 as a case study of theoretical application,focuses on the research of risk identification,risk assessment and risk sharing,and puts forward targeted risk countermeasures.First of all,this paper summarizes the failure cases of many PPP projects,analyzes and extracts the reasons for their failure,and forms the final risk list of 6 first-level risk factors and 23 secondlevel risk factors under the advice of experts,combined with theoretical analysis and actual characteristics of the project.Secondly,the analytic hierarchy process is used to build a risk assessment model and calculate the occurrence probability of identified risk elements.On the basis of the model and data established by hierarchical analysis,the risk degree is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the paper proposes the risk sharing plan between the government and social capital,divides the risk sharing subject according to the principle of risk sharing,and puts forward the risk response measures for 23 risk factors.The research object of this article is located in cold district,with high construction difficulty.Due to the fact that the construction period coincides with the year when policies of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance are constantly changing,it is greatly affected by policies.Therefore,the risk management requirements represent the current industry level.In addition,the comprehensive research method combining case studies and empirical evidence aims to pre judge the potential risks of similar subway projects and increase attention to risk factors,By taking corresponding measures for control,it can also provide a certain degree of reference for risk management of related projects.