Research On Risk Of Coal-bed Methane Power Generation Project Dased On Gray Syetem Theory

As for a clean energy though, coal-bed methane hindered the safety production of coal mine, which became one of the planning priorities to be encouraged for an integrated development of mining and comprehensive utilization in the Some Views on further Accelerating the Use of coal-bed Methane (Coal Mine Gas) of General Office of the State Council issued by the General Office of the State Council in September,2013 and the Development and Utilization about coal-bed Methane(Coal Mine Gas) of the 13th Five-year Plan issued by the National Energy Board in November, 2016. The waste of resources and coal mining safety risks were reduced through adopting coal-bed methane released from the underneath of the mines as a fuel for power generation in large-scale coal mining group. There lied great economic, social and environmental benefits in the development of using coal-bed methane for power generation, which met the requirement of circular economy development of China. Thus, the research on the risk of coal-bed methane power generation project became much important.Firstly, combining the basic theory of project life cycle and characteristics of coal-bed methane power generation project, the life cycle of this kind of project was divided into 4 stages including conception, design, carrying on, and operation, and 24 risky items were identified for the above 4 stages by literature research method in the present paper. Questionnaire and SPSS software were utilized to analyze the identified items. Eliminating 7 less-important risky items, the rest 17 risky items were as the key items designed to build the risk evaluation index system of coal-bed methane power generation project. Secondly,based on the risk evaluation index system, we applied the gray system theory to establish the risk evaluation model of the project. The weight of each index is calculated by the improved gray correlation degree to determine the stages of life cycle and the influence on overall risk of each risky item of the project, and the overall risk standard of the project was determined by gray clustering analysis. According to evaluation model, the empirical analysis was carried out to obtain the gray evaluation right vector (0.0131, 0.1007, 0.2971, 0.3233, 0.2658). Based on the principle of maximum weight, the maximum value of the above vector belonged to the fourth gray category. Therefore, the overall risk standard of the project lied in "higher". Finally, premised on the measures of risk control, risk retention and risk transfer, the risk management strategies as to the key risky items of whole life cycle of coal-bed methane power generation is proposed.The comprehensive evaluation index system of the coal-bed methane power generation was established systematically in the present paper. In the aspect of methods, we identified the project risks combining the literature research and questionnaire survey, established the risk evaluation model based on the gray system theory, and examined the model through case analysis. Some relative management countermeasures and suggestions were indicated for the key risky items of coal-bed methane power generation project to improve the contents of the research on the risk of coal-bed methane power generation project.