The Study Of Dry Bulk Ship Investment Of Yi Feng Shipping Risk And Decisions

Under the background of economic globalization, dry bulk shipping industry has become an important part of international trade. As the global economic has entered a recession and financial crisis has been intensified in recent years, the international dry bulk market get great impact. Due to dry bulk ships investment industry’s characteristic of high investment, low returns and long payback period, the ship price index volatile when the market was stook,lead to huge risks for dry bulk ships’ investors. How to measure the risk value correctly,select the most appropriate time to enter the market, avoid the investment risk, have become the problems investors facing in entering the dry bulk market. So there is great significance for investment risk to evaluate the value of dry bulk ships.This paper firstly expounds the concept and characteristics of ship investment,briefly introduces the current development trend of dry bulk ships, and makes a briefly analysis of the situation of dry bulk ship new-building market, second-hand market and disassembling market. Then this paper determines the main factors and events influencing the current international dry bulk market, makes a classification of dry bulk ships’ investment risk at the same time, divides into two major categories of operating risk and ship capital risk and gives risk control measures. To analyze the investment risk value quantitatively, using the VaR model and GARCH-GED model which are used to analyze the financial index sequence,establishes the mathematical model to calculate the value at risk of price index.Finally, this paper makes a scientific decision to buy Panama new ship and Panama second-hand ship.