| Ship investment relates to the whole working process of shipping enterprises, and will affect benefit of future.No matter any country, region or shipping companies, to establish a reasonable and complete, advanced fleet structure of the shipping industry, ship investment is an important and indispensable means. By investing different types of ships to increase the number of new ship, and enhance the development of the weak type of ship, establish a new fleet of proportion, in order to promote a planned fleet of proportion.The ship investment activities is one of the most important strategic decision-making activities of each shipping company.The existing shipping business decision-making based on the current general measurement and analysis of the market and in the next few years shipping market forecast.However, due to the lag time difference of ship investment cycle from current shipping market situation (this time difference is usually up to two to three years), as well as the shipping market in the future uncertainty of the situation often can not be expected to lead to investment returns, even as the market Changes lead to serious business losses.This uncertainty of market forecast brings enormous potential investment risks to the shipping enterprises. Therefore, the research of the phenomenon and the risks of the market will give important support to the decision-making of the shipping enterprises manager.November 30, 2007, the first vessel of parking spaces in 2000 ro-ro ship with independent intellectual property rights from China Changjiang River Shipping Group, Jinling Shipyard officially start the ignition.This 2000 parking spaces aboard ship is in the first ro-ro ship of the 6 similar ships that China Jinling Shipyard will be built for the Changhang Shenzhen shipping Company. Due to the fact that shipping markets are enormously affected by world economy and international trade, and that ship investment has such characteristics as big capital occupation, long profit-gaining Period and many indefinite elements, this project of ship investment will have large risk, which is, in many cases, unpredictable. Therefore it is very necessary to make analysis on the projects of ship investment by using scientific and appropriate means of analyzing risks. In the management of modern shipping enterprises, various Potential risks of ship investment projects should be recognized, approximated and assessed before final decision is made.Under the guidance of the ideas above, this thesis will first have a general look at the theories and Practice of the decision-making of ship investment risk both inside China and abroad, then make researches on the classification of ship investment risk, the elements that affect it and the means of decision-making, and by making use of the sensitivity analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation, establish a risk analysis model of ship investment based on the data of Shenzhen company of Changjiang shipping enterprises., and at last, aim at the main risk and the actuality of the enterprises, put forward methods and advises after risk evaluation.According to the trait of ship investment, this thesis integrate cases and risk analysis theory so as that the investors will be able to better bring the investment risks under control. And it hopefully Provides the shipping enterprises with beneficial references in terms of the business of ship investment. |
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