Study On The Agricultural Goods Trade Deficit Between China And ASEAN

ASEAN is a priority direction for China to develop its diplomatic and foreign economic and trade cooperation,but also it is only way to the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road Construction.2016 is the 25 th anniversary of the establishment of dialogue between China and ASEAN,bilateral economic and trade relations have begun shift from "golden decade" to "diamond decade".But,in the process of economic and trade development,there also has been some problems cann't be ignored: Since 1994,China's agricultural trade with ASEAN has been in a deficit situation,although in recent years,the deficit has been shrinking trend,but this pattern of trade deficit has never been reversed.This paper takes the present situation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from 2002 to 2016 as the starting point.Firstly,we analyze the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN from the perspective of import and export,and try to explore the characteristics of bilateral agricultural trade;Secondly,under clarifying the mechanism of influence,empirical studies on the factors such as per capita income inequality at the national level,the exchange rate of RMB,and the competitiveness of agricultural products at the industrial level,the demand structure and the product structure were carried out through the Trade Gravity Model and CMS model,conclusions show that,at the national level,the per capita income gap between China and the ASEAN countries is the primary factor affecting China's trade deficit with the ASEAN agricultural products,and the change of the per capita income gap is opposite to that of the deficit,the effect of the RMB exchange rate is second;at the industry level,in the overall trade,the low competitiveness of agricultural products and the unreasonable trade structure are the main cause of China agricultural trade deficit with ASEAN.The classification of trade in agricultural products,2 types and 4kinds of agricultural trade deficit are result from the growth of ASEAN agricultural products in supply.Finally,we put forward the corresponding policy suggestion.