The Financial Crisis Warning Study Of China’s Wholesale And Retail Public Companies

In recent years,the international retail giants in China continue to expand and annexation,coupled with the rapid development of the Internet economy,China’s wholesale and retail industry suffered an unprecedented impact.As the leader in the domestic wholesale and retail industry,listed wholesale and retail companies face the problem of how to deal with the rapid changes in the market environment and keep its healthy operation,which is also an issue that business owners pay attention to.As the financial crisis has the precursor property,if the financial crisis can be analyzed and warned beforehand,the reasonable suggestion would be given to the leader and the financial crisis can be prevented.Therefore,the foundation of financial crisis warning model is of great importance.In this paper,based on the properties of wholesale and retail industry 23 financial indexes and 5 nonfinancial indexes were adopted,30 wholesale and retail listed companies from the year of 2000 to 2016 were selected,and finally the financial crisis warning model based on the Logistic regression analysis method were founded.The sketch of this paper is as follows:Chapter 1,the background,target and meaning of this research were introduced;Chapter 2,the familiar financial crisis warning models were listed;Chapter 3,the theories of financial crisis warning were summarized;Chapter 4,the model sample source and selection method,the initial selection strategy of financial crisis warning indexes and the final filtered financial and nonfinancial indexes were described.Chapter 5,significance analysis and factor analysis were used to filtrate and process the model indexes.Finally the corresponding Logistic regression models were founded and the prediction precisions were examined through test samples.Chapter 6,the conclusions were drawn and expectation of this field in the future were made.The main conclusions are as follows:First,listed companies that are in financial crisis are generally a precursor and can be predicted in advance.Second,after adding nonfinancial indexes,the precision of financial crisis warning model has been significantly improved compared with the model using pure financial indexes.Thirdly,the significance of financial indexes is significantly higher than nonfinancial indexes.Fourth,the Logistic regression model established in this paper can be applied to the management system of companies in order to effectively reduce the operational and financial risks.