The Study Of Credit Risk Of Real Estate Company At The Perspective Of Life Cycle

The real estate industry is one of the most important industries in China,it has been entered into the silver age from the golden age of high profit officially,in the operation of the market,industry policy and strategy have undergone great changes.In the guidance of macro economic policies,the real estate industry is gradually change.But due to the enterprise in pursuit of short-term interests for a long time and lacking of strategic planning,real estate has accumulated a large number of inventory that increased the pressure of enterprise growth and affected its steady development.Moreover,the real estate industry has following characteristics,a large demand for capital,long turnover cycle and the high asset-liability ratio,narrow financing channel and high Industrial relationship.All of those highlight the problems of credit risk of real estate enterprises.Once the real estate industry outbreak credit crisis,due to chain reaction,the whole economy may be affected.Therefore,the prevention and management of real estate credit risk is of great significance.Based on the influence of enterprise life cycle to credit risk of real estate Company,the study object of this article is the credit risk of real estate listed companies from the perspective of the life cycle.At the theory,real estate enterprises will be divided into initial stage,growth stage,mature stage and decline stage and analysis the credit risk characteristics of the real estate in different life cycles from the qualitative point of view.Secondly,the paper selects 25 indicators,such as financial situation,macroeconomic variables,the basic situation of enterprises and so on.Then using the relative growth index to divide the life cycle of the real estate listed companies.With the help of Stata software and adopting factor analysis and logistic regression model method,the paper constructs the credit risk predictionmodel.The model has been tested by the goodness of fit test and the validity test.According to the results of the empirical study,the credit risk is analyzed from the whole aspect and the life cycle aspect.It shows that the enterprise in different growth stages are faced with different credit risks,the influencing factors of credit risk are also different and various.The relative growth index,solvency and change of management of credit risk has a positive influence on credit risk.Finally,according to the features of credit risks of real estate enterprises in various stages of the life cycle,the article puts forward some suggestions to enterprises,commercial banks and government in the real estate credit management,in order to achieve a win-win situation and promote the steady development of the national economy.