The Risk Analysis And Evaluationg Of The Real Estate Project Based On Theory Of Life Cycle

Since reforming and opening-up to the world, the economy of China is developing very fast, real estate industry become supporting industry of national economy in China. Several years ago, price for real estate going up rapidly, which make real estate become one of the top profit business. Although government take multi steps to restrain rapid increasing of price in real estate industry, results is out of government's expectation. Global financial crisis happened last year exerts high influence on the real estate industry in China, and potential risk of real estate industry appears now. As for as real estate project is concerned, it will be very important to analyze risk factors and evaluate extent of risk.On the basis of theory Total Life Cycle, this article describes real estate project as four phases, which is initial plotting, designing and programming, construction, sales and estate management. Every project involves a lot of participant, the article take four concerned parties as samples to analyze and value their risks, four parties are real estate developer, designer as contractor, Construction Company and property Company.The first, the article analyze risk of real estate during any one phase, secondly, the article program risk evaluation index for main participant, at last, the article evaluate risks by proper modus.In the phase of initial plotting, real estate developer is main participant, and in the stage of social research, to evaluate risk by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation; in the stage of setting up project, to evaluate risk by the Sensitivity Analysis and Probability Analysis.Designing and programming of real estate project, which evaluate risk of developerby two steps, the first step is to evaluate risk of designing proposal by the theory ofValue Engineering, the second step is to evaluate risk of designer by ComprehensiveEvaluation. The risk of designer will be identified at first, and then programming index.In the phase of construction, the risk evaluation is on the basis of theory of Earned Value Measure and set up early warning for the construction period and cost. The risk evaluation of contractor is on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Bayes method.In the phase of sales and estate management, risk evaluation of the property company is on the basis of The Fusion Method on Multi-Granularity Linguistic term Sets.By the analysis and evaluation of risk, all participants understand their own risks, which is favorable for all parties concerned to take relative measures against risks. Only after the risks of every real estate project are clear and taking correct measures, the risk of whole real estate industry can be decreased to the minimum.