Research On The Regulation Of Coal Market Based On System Dynamics In China

The energy production and consumption has been dominated by coal because of the energy structure characteristic,which is rich in coal,lean in oil and less in gas.As the main energy of our country,the supply and demand of coal is closely related to the development of our economy and the progress of society.For a long time,coal production has maintained a steady pace of development,but the coal market was not always maintaining a balance between supply and demand.Before the reform and opening up,China's economic development has been seriously restricted due to the shortage of the coal market.At the beginning,coal production basically met the needs of the rapid development of the national economy under the condition of adjusting economic structure.But the coal market presents oversupply over time while tight supply appears in local areas.The coal market is often in a state of imbalance between supply and demand.Therefore,it is very important to analyze the factors of the balance between supply and demand of coal market in China and find out how to make the coal market in a stable state.In this paper,the purpose of our study lies here.First,this paper expounds the related theory of coal market,as well as the present situation of coal market in our country.It analyzes the related factors affecting the balance of coal supply and demand,selects the appropriate variable factors and builds coal price,coal supply and economic growth system.Then,we study the dynamic relationship among the factors in the system through numerical simulation.Combined with the historical data,the genetic algorithm is used to determine the value of the relevant parameters in the system,so that it has a practical significance.And we propose several regulatory policies which can make the coal market in a steady state.First of all,this paper analyzes the impact of the regulatory policies on the stability of coal market from the perspective of single control strategy and the combination of two strategies.Then this paper analyzes the degree of reducing theintensity of coal consumption through implementation of single control strategy and combined strategies based on the intensity of coal consumption in 2015.In the end,we draw the conclusion of this paper from control policies: In order to make coal market maintain a balance between supply and demand,reduce the intensity of coal consumption effectively,and achieve the expected goal,we should adjust the control strategy timely and monitor in time according to the coal market under the condition of developing new energy,using clean energy,adjusting industrial structure,strengthening the regulatory ability of the market itself and the government administrative intervention in time.