Evolution Characteristics And Influence Factor Of The World Cotton Trade Network

Cotton is the sensitive product of agricultural products trade in the world,with the spatial temporal differentiation of "small world" trade network reflects the different specialization of countries(regions)in the cotton trade,making countries(regions)become a multilevel and multi form integration,so the interactinal and mutual influence of international trade network reflects the "core edge" position of every country in the world objectively.From the structure of dynamic trade network topology,the direction of world merchandise trade imbalance between supply and demand and promote the high international commodity trade,namely each node represents an active subject in the network,and between nodes there are differential features of commodity reflects demand and supply relationship.Through the calculation of network topology parameters such as density,degree,betweenness centrality and closeness centrality can know about a country’s influence in the trade network more clearly,which is occupying a central position,and also capture relationship between nodes in the network world trade effectively.This paper reviews the relevant research results,collect and collate the data analysis of the current situation of cotton production in the world,including the world cotton acreage,production,consumption,in-depth research and analysis of features in the world cotton production network;subsequent analysis of finishing the world cotton trade status,2002-2014 world cotton trade data using dynamic complex network the analysis method based on topological index of different time node of the cotton trade in the online world,revealing the world cotton trade structure and trade status involvement;further use QAP regression model to analyze the economic development level of all countries(GDP),national geographic distance(Dist),National Cotton Subsidy(Subsidy),a country’s per capita arable land area(ARAL),a dummy variable whether the two land adjacent(Contig)between the two countries,are members of the WTO(WTO),and the existence of free trade agreement(FTA)impact on world cotton trade;through the research on the trade situation Chinese cotton,topology analysis of the characteristics of China method to calculate the node using the complex network,according to the background from the perspective of world cotton trade network established Chinese position in world cotton trade,the specific circumstances of China the cotton trade;finally,the conclusion of this paper and discuss the policy implications.Through the research,the conclusions of this paper are as follows: first,the world cotton trade network density and average degree are increasing first and then decreasing the n-shaped trend,the financial crisis of 2008 caused the "effect of fragmentation,diversity of world cotton trade pattern.The number of the world’s major trading partner countries increase cotton exports,the export market diversification;import trade partner number overall downward trend,the market structure more closely;second,the world cotton trade network center showed a downward trend," reduced year by year similar internal structure between the core periphery countries,but the United States,Italy,Germany,Turkey and other countries are at the center of trade,trade ties and " core " in the relevant countries and bands,and the " edge " of the cotton trade between countries are alternative;third,most of the developing countries of the cotton trade country and not because of its comparative advantage and factor endowment trade occupy " core " the status,possibly because the developed countries have a greater voice in the production and trade negotiations,the To the trade of agricultural products is still in the "gray area",damaged part of the cotton trade interests of developing countries;fourth,the world cotton trade unweighted network influenced by two GDP difference between the two countries,geographical distance,national cotton subsidies,the national per capita arable land area,the two countries are adjacent,whether the two countries are members of the WTO,the existence of free trade the agreement of the seven variables,which connect the world cotton trade effect of these seven variables,and the world cotton trade weighted network is influenced by two GDP difference,national cotton subsidies and the two countries are adjacent,that these three variables affect the world cotton trade volume;fifth,China should fully consider the rationality and scientificity of the ten a variable factor mentioned above,should be combined with their level of economic development,the Cotton Subsidy and neighboring cotton trade The development of China’s cotton trade development policy,to speed up the implementation of the strategy of agricultural products,and gradually consolidate and strengthen China’s position in the world cotton trade network.