The Research Of Evolution Characteristics And Influence Factors Of Electronic Product Trade Network Along The Belt And Road

With the steady implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative,more and more countries or regions have joined the construction of the Belt and Road.The relationships among countries or regions are becoming more and more intimate and complex,among which the trade relationship is more typical,and the intertwined trade network relationship has been paid more and more attention by the policymakers of governments and international organizations.In recent years,thanks to the continuous progress of science and technology,the electronics industry has risen rapidly in many countries.Electronic products have become a necessity for people's life and become one of the main commodities in commodity trade activities along the Belt and Road.In 2017,the import and export value of China's electronic products between China and the countries along the Belt and Road accounted for about 19.95%and 27.98%of China's import and export of all merchandise trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road respectively and account for about 32.73%and 19.29%of the import and export value of China's electronic products between China and the world respectively;Vietnam,a rising star,its import and export value of electronic products accounted for about 18.35%and 45.28%of import and export value of all merchandise trade between Vietnam and countries along the Belt and Road respectively,and accounted for about 41.54%and 44.08%of import and export of electronic products between Vietnam and the world in 2017.Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia and Thailand are also closely related to the other countries in tenns of electronic product trade relationship.It is expected to make electronic product trade a new economic growth point of China and other countries if the electronic product trade relations become more intimate among countries along the Belt and Road.The countries will achieve genuine mutual benefit and win-win situation.First of all,this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and influence factors of electronic product dynamic trade network along the Belt and Road as the whole in 2002-2017.And then,from the China's Perspective,this paper studies the peer effects of electronic product trade network along the Belt and Road,which mainly explores the present situations of China' electronic product trade and factors that affect the export of China's electronic products.The results show that firstly,in tenns of the evolution characteristics of electronic product dynamic trade network along the Belt and Road,the density and reciprocity of the trade network are relatively low,but both of them have sustained a small growth;a few countries' export market of electronic products becomes more diversified;Asia-Pacific countries hold the main trade flows in the network;the core-periphery structure is relatively stable,but there are only a few core countries;in the process of the community evolution,countries along the Belt and Road eventually finally formed two major communities that were dominated by the Asia-Pacific countries and Eastern European countries respectively,and the former plays a more important role.Secondly,compared with other countries' network characteristics in the whole trade network,we find that China is a big importer and exporter of electronic products in the trade network;China plays an important role of "bridge" in the trade netxvork;China almost always occupies the position of the core country;and the Asia-Pacific community which China belongs to not only exists stably but also holds main trade value.Thirdly,differences in per capita income levels,demographic differences,common border and common language have a positive effect on electronic product trade.Difference in inflation rates has a negative effect.Fourthly,China's export market has achieved full coverage,but import market is relatively concentrated;China's electronic goods trade is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region,and export values are much higher than import values;The trade network status of China and importing countries,per capita GDP of China and importing countries,the population of importing countries,common language and common border between China and the importing countries will promote China's electronic products export to other countries.The main innovation of this paper is that,firstly,this paper applies the complex network analysis method to the electronic product trade along the Belt and Road for the first time,and makes an empirical study by QAP model when exploring its Influence factors.At present,there are only a few studies on electronic products in the existing literatures and they are normative articles.Based on the dynanic trade data from 2002 to 2017,this paper uses complex network analysis method to explore the evolution characteristics along the Belt and Road of overall electronic product trade network and the trade changes of single country,and makes an empirical analysis of its factors.Secondly,exploring the factors that influence the export of Chinese electronic products,in addition to the variables commonly used,this paper introduces a new indicator,”trade network status"as an independable variable,which is calculated from electronic product trade network along the Belt and Road.And in order to verify the effect of trade network status of China and other countries along the Belt and Road on China's electronic products export,it bases on panel data,adopts the instrumental variable method to deal with its endogeneity,which treats the lag of trade network status and per capita GDP of own countries as the instrumental variables.