The Analysis Of Housing Reverse Mortgage Pension System Model In Guangzhou

Aging society has arrived to China quietly.Like most other cities in China,Guangzhou is facing an increasingly serious pension problem.Although the level of economic development in Guangzhou is in the forefront of China,but it still lacks of some pertinent preparation conditions to handle the aging of the population,there are also some other serious situations like aging before getting rich first,"4-2-1" family structure model,imperfect social security system,the huge gap of pension,the unsustainable traditional pension style.The implementation of Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan Endowment(HRMLE),on the one hand,can help explore a new model to replace the existing traditional style of endowment,on the other hand,it is conducive to make up for the shortage of pension.At the same time,this model can transfer the elder's property from the house to liquid cash funds effectively,which is a good way to prevent some cash-type accident and improve the quality of elder's sunset life.Since the domestic introduction of Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan Endowment,there have been several attempts which all have end to failure,therefore,an effective model of this project remains to be studied.First of all,this paper uses a theoretical way to analysis the basic concepts of Housing Reverse Mortgage,Interest Rate Risk,Bayesian Refined Nash Equilibrium,and domestic as well as foreign research situations and experience.Secondly,according to the research data of Guangzhou,this paper analyzes the population structure,economic environment,the development of real estate market,insurance industry and financial industry,as well as the elder's cognition and attitudes toward HRMLE,from the perspective of feasibility and market demand.The analysis shows that it is necessary to implement the Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan Endowment model in Guangzhou which has a certain feasibility.Then,using the game theory method,combining with the basic data of Guangzhou,this paper constructs asystem and a specific model of the Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan Endowment in Guangzhou.Finally,through the study,this paper has the following four conclusions.First of all,the situation of current population structure,economic level,real estate industry development,pension security in Guangzhou has the feasibility of this business.Secondly,to prevent the "adverse selection" and "moral hazard",we can adjust the two sides of the game mechanism.Thirdly,during the implementation of Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan Endowment business,the government of Guangzhou should take the "market-led,government support" model.In the end,since this business is a combination of bank,insurance,real estate and many other industries,some fluctuations in the real estate market and interest rates,as well as life uncontrollability must be taken into account.These fluctuations will trigger many risks for business participants,such as policy risk,information asymmetry risk,longevity risk,interest rate risk,changing real estate value risk,etc.By adjusting the game mechanism of health assessment,improving the elder's insurance system and reverse mortgage pension management mechanism,establishing an independent institution to assess real estate value and insurance could transfer or avoid them.In order to make this model a more efficient implementation in Guangzhou,this paper give us some corresponding recommendations from the perspective of game mechanism,policy,government responsibility,separate business and so on.