A Modeling Approach To Gasoline Consumption Of The Passenger Car Sector In China Considering Supply Side Constraints

Gasoline and diesel,as the main oil products,the demand of which mainly depends on consumer side,meanwhile it is also constrained by the supply side such as refinery structure and so on.In recent years with the domestic economic slowing down and private passenger car sales increasing rapidly,the increasing demand of gasoline has become the main force to pull the growth of domestic oil products consumption.This involves the balance between the flexibility of gasoline and diesel production in refining sector and gasoline consumption in passenger car sector,which is influenced by refinery structure and car fuel economy.In this background,we try to study the production flexibility in refining sector and the feature of gasoline consumption in passenger car sector with the method of modeling analysis in order to figure out the matching case between supply and demand of gasoline and diesel in China.We first establish a superstructure refinery model to study the flexibility of gasoline and diesel production and forecast the constraint of gasoline consumption in passenger car sector up to 2030.Then we make a model to forecast passenger car sales and stocks,and calculate gasoline consumption in passenger car sector.Finally,we compare the gasoline consumption and the constraint value and analyze key factors that influence gasoline consumption in passenger car sector.After that we use the method of scenario analysis to study the key factors influencing gasoline consumption in passenger car sector,and try to give a few suggestions for the development of passenger car sector in China up to 2030.The results show that in the basic scenario,ratio of diesel to gasoline in refining sector in China can change from 1.27 to 2.92.the maximum gasoline production rate is 25.5%,and the corresponding diesel production rate is 32.4%.Gasoline consumption in passenger car sector will exceed the constraint value between 2019 and 2030,and about 20 million tonnes gasoline will be in shortage,which means necessary measures should be taken to reduce the growth rate of gasoline consumption in passenger car sector.According to the roadmap of reducing gasoline consumption in passenger car sector,the next 5 year is the key period to control passenger car sales.In this period,passenger car sales should not exceed 200 million.Since 2020 the control of passenger car sales can be removed,but the average annual mileage of passenger car should decline to 9 thousand kilometers and maintain to 2030.