Policy Analysis Of Large-scale Diffusion Of Electric Vehicles In Shenzhen China

Electric vehicles(EVs)have been proposed as the primary technology of long-term transportation alternatives of China to enhance energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases.For EVs large scale market penetration,Shenzhen government has been implementing a variety of public policies which fail to achieve the government's target in private EVs sales.In order to deeply understand the influence of government policy and infrastructure development on customer purchase decision,we formulate a simulation model using system dynamics to build a clear and holistic vision of EVs penetration in Shenzhen.In this model,we try to use real value of parameters whenever possible.Other parameters which are difficult to qualified come from a questionnaire survey of 406 participants.Scenarios analysis gives insights into the effect of different policies,infrastructure development and the duration of policies.Several conclusions can be obtained based on the results:(1)Direct subsidy,purchase restriction and restriction by tail number have significant improvement of EVs diffusion.Free parking fee and tolls have some effect.Rental model has little effect.(2)Direct subsidy is the key factor of EVs' promotion.It takes 10 years for EVs to enter high speed growth stage with direct subsidy.Without direct subsidy,it takes 22 years.What's more,the gradual exit of direct subsidy will not lead the failure of EVs' promotion,although it may lead six-year delay of high speed growth stage.(3)Implementing restrictions on CVs registration or driving will boost EVs within 10 years.Driving restriction is more effective than registration restriction.(4)Charging piles are more important than charging station for private EVs' users.The key construction place includes communities,roadside parking lots and other parking place.The proper rate of EVs and charging piles is 1:1.5.(5)The critical duration time of policy for EVs marketing diffusion is 11 years.Thus,we suggest that government needs work on a long-term policy for electric mobility and adjust policy according to the promotion.