Study On Electric Vehicle Subsidy Policy Modeling And Simulation Based On System Dynamics

Electric vehicle(EV) is generally confirmed as an important way to ensure energy security and low carbon economy by all countries in the world. Since the 10th Five-Year Plan, China began to give a high degree of concern and support to the development of electric vehicle technology. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, the government puts it in the one of the seven new strategic industries and increases its popularity through "Ten Cities & Thousand Units Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles Pilot Demonstration". With the development of electric vehicle technology continues to mature, national electric vehicle subsidy policy becomes more and more important for the development of its industry.This paper made the research around the subsidy policy of electric vehicles, which can be summarized as follows.Firstly, for the purchase of subsidies, we established an electric vehicle system dynamics model to analysis of the influence of purchase subsidy policy for electric vehicle population growth. The research shows that reasonable price subsidies will lead consumers to make decision whether to buy a electric vehicle.Secondly, for the electric vehicle charging problem, we established an electric vehicle simulation model of time-of-use electricity price policy based on pedestrian dynamics, which will analysis the rationality of the charging price subsidy strategy through the load of the distribution network. The simulation results show that the implementation of the time-of-use price policy can guide the electric vehicle users’ charging behavior, realize the intelligent of management of the grid’s demand side, reach the better peak and valley load in local distribution network and guarantee the security and reliability of the grid.The last section of the paper is case study. We forecast the electric vehicle population in Beijing with the method in this paper. Then we made the simulation with pedestrian dynamics simulation through subsidy policy and time-of-use electric price policy in the second ring road region of Beijing. Through summarizing and analyzing the law among them, we can give some suggestions about the development of the electric vehicle industry.