Energy Consumption Analysis And Prediction Of Building Life Cycle In China

Construction,industrial and transportation,known as the three energy consumption areas,are also important source of greenhouse gas emissions.Since 2012,China's slowed down its industrialization pace and the urbanization process still steadily push forward.This means that the construction will take more energy conservation and reduction emissions.At present domestic related research mostly focused on building operating stage of energy issues,lack of analysis of the whole life cycle of building energy consumption calculation.But it is easy to cause greatly improvement of the production energy consumption of building materials to only focus on the energy consumption of building operation stage of research.In fact building material production energy consumption is also an important part of the whole life cycle of building energy consumption.So only analyzing building operating consumption maybe lost balance in future development.This paper will systematically account the whole life cycle of the building energy consumption and analysis and forecast building energy consumption comprehensively.At first,this paper divides building energy consumption into building materials production,construction,building operating and building demolition four stages from the perspective of life cycle method.This paper analyzes the characteristics and causes of building energy consumption for the past 15 years from 2000 to 2014 of building energy consumption calculation.Second,on the basis of the qualitative analysis of various influencing factors of building energy consumption,this paper make use of path analysis of quantitative analysis by using the software SPSS to analyze driving factors to influence the size of the building energy consumption.At last,this paper establishes a BP neural network model and grey GM(1,1)model to predict the future five years of building life cycle energy consumption and compare the results.This paper set up two different development scenarios: benchmark scenarios and policy scenarios and establish the scenario prediction model to predict the different development trend of building operation energy consumption in two scenarios.