Study On The Energy Consumption Demand Of Kunming Based On Scenario Analysis

Kunming, as the provincial capital of Yunnan Province, is now in a critical period of industrialization, city of ascension, marketization, internationalization development, to realize scientific development across the extensive type, but the road of current economic development has not yet reached out of high input, high consumption and low output of the growth mode. To realize the goal of maitaining the sustainable economic development, the government of Kunming put forward the strategic goal of building a low carbon economy, and adhering to the development of low carbon economy. Under the background of controlling the total energy consumption and the rate of the energy reduction, through changing structure and transfering mode of economic development, the rate of the energy reduction to GDP is23.5%during the period of2005—2010. overfulfil the energy-saving targets of20%. The targerting rate of the energy reduction to GDP is18%during the period of2010—2015.In the last four years, the index is16.0%, reaching the schedule of87.8%.This paper takes the precise issue that predicting the total energy consumption in years of2020in Kunming. In the scope of energy supply and consumption as the research center。Through the overall description of energy supply and consumption in Kunming, points out that the serious shortage of energy self-sufficiency ability; the higher degree of dependence on foreign energy products;the industrial sector is still the main department of energy consumption; rapid economic growth depends on the corresponding energy consumption growth. Through the Comparative analysis of the total economic amount, industrial structure and the energy consumption intensity index among the city of Kunming, Chengdu and Nanning. The conclusion is that in the similar conditions, no matter what the economy development and the industrial structure, the pillar industry is heavy industrialization. The trendency brings out the higher rate of the energy reduction to Industrial added value, and the rate of the energy reduction to GDP is in secondary level. But both of them are declining.Finally, establishing the regression equation, using the total economy, industrial structure and the total population as independent variables, the total energy consumption as the dependent variable. By scenario analysis, predicting the total energy consumption of Kunming in2020in benchmarking, secondary and higher three scenarios. Reaching the conclusion that during the period of2010—2015,the targerting rate of the energy reduction to GDP is8%—12%, concluding the premise to meet the development of low carbon economy in Kunming。...