Researh On Dynamic Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of Chinese Non-Financial Listed Companies

With the continuous development of Chinese overall economic and financial market,the number of non-financial listed companies increase rapidly,its scale expands too.Non-financial listed companies has become an important part of national economy in our country.It has made a great contribution to the rapid development of national economy in our country.At the same time,the proportion of financial assets in the asset structure of non-financial listed companies keeps climbing.This has also led to financial risks being transmitted to non-financial sectors by the financial industry.The risks of financial crises faced by non-financial listed companies have greatly increased,especially in China.According to statistics,Chinese non-financial sector enterprises have a debt ratio of 156% at the end of 2015,and the proportion of non-financial enterprises in China is as high as 65%.It is important to note that causes of the non-financial enterprise financial crisis is not the same with financial crisis of the financial sector enterprises,the financial sector financial early-warning index and financial early warning model is not suitable for non-financial listed companies.At the same time the market compete intensely,it is urgent to construct the dynamic financial warning model and realize the forecast and output of the probability of the company's financial crisis in a certain period.Therefore,this paper taking non-financial listed companies in China as the research object which is based on the Forward Intensity function established with the actual dynamic financial early warning model of non-financial listed companies in our country.It aimed at improving the financial industry in our countryFrom two aspects which are financial early warning indicators and the financial early warning model,this paper summarized the related research both at home and abroad,and pointed out that the most of existing research aimed at financial enterprises,lacking the part of financial early warning research of non-financial enterprise.In addition,the most of existing financial warning models are static financial early warning models.It has lacked dynamic prediction for a long time,the probability of financial crisis on the two problems,this paper in order to realize the dynamic of the financial crisis early warning non-financial listed companies in China as the target for related research.First of all,in this paper,the financial risk,financial crisis and the dynamic financial early warning and related concepts defined,considering the relative to the abroad,China is seldom delisting of listed companies,thus to the company whether by special treatment to the judgment standard for Chinese listed companiesfinancial crisis,and to build the financial early warning model for dynamic.