The Non-linear Influence Of China's Energy Consumption On Economic Growth Under The Effects Of The Exchange Rate

Promoting economic growth is one of the country's development goals,to this end,both the government and academia are extremely attention to the economic growth drivers.Finding the factors of playing an important role in the economic growth can make the implementation of policies more effective,promote the development of the economy better and faster.The degree of dependence on the demand of energy in China's economic development is high,this makes energy consumption become a variable that can not be ignored in researching China's economic growth,researches on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth have become a hot issue.Existing researches use the conventional methods to prove the co-integration relationship and the causal relationship,but due to the macro economic variables in a complex economic system,the relationship between any two variables is vulnerable to the interference of other factors,makes the cointegration relationship between them may show the nonlinear form,thus this paper uses threshold cointegration to reveal the real relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.With the process of RMB exchange rate marketization in advancing,the fluctuation range of exchange rate is expanding,the exchange rate become the important factor that affects the macroeconomic variables,especially after the internationalisation of RMB,the influence of the RMB exchange rate change is not allowed to ignore.The demand of energy in China is depending on import,leading to energy consumption easily affected by exchange rate change,so when research the influence of energy consumption on economic growth,the RMB exchange rate is an important variable that must be considered.Firstly,this paper summarizes the theory of energy consumption and economic growth and the theory of exchange rate transfer,under the guidance of basic theory,based on the framework of endogenous economic growth model,deducing the empirical model of the influence of China's energy consumption change on economic growth under the effects of the exchange rate through mathematical derivation.To examine whether the effect of energy consumption to economic growth shows the nonlinear characteristic that is affected by the exchange rate change,in the empirical process,using data from 1980 to 2015,the change rate of RMB exchange rate is the threshold variable,using the threshold cointegration method to do the empirical test.Different energy types have different dependence on import,so they are influenced by exchange rate changes.Therefore,in order topreferably understand the impact of energy consumption on economic growth,in the empirical study respectively from the angle of the total energy consumption and energy consumption structure to discuss the real impact of energy consumption on economic growth under the action of the exchange rate,finally according to the problems finding from the empirical results,put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.