A Research On Financial Risk Assessment Of CF Company On The Basis Of Analytic Hierarchy Process

Since the reform and opening up,under the background of the continuous growth of China's national economy and the continuous increase of the consumption level of the whole country,the demand for commercial housing of urban residents in China is also increasing year by year,and the real estate has gradually become the pillar industry in China.In addition,because the real estate industry has the characteristics of large driving coefficient and strong industrial linkage,maintaining the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry has become the most important part of the development of the national economy.However,because the real estate industry has the characteristics of high investment cost,strong regionally and long economic cycle,the financial risks faced by real estate enterprises are relatively high.In recent years,China has entered a "new normal" and the government has strengthened the macro-control of the real estate market,which has increased the financial risk of the real estate enterprises.If we cannot effectively identify,evaluate and control financial risks,the consequences may become a financial crisis that threatens the survival and development of enterprises and the stability of the national economy.Therefore,the research of financial risk assessment has become an urgent problem to be solved in real estate enterprises.In terms of research method,the financial risk of the enterprise can usually be tracked through the quantifiable financial indicators.However,this method ignores the significant impact of non-financial factors on real estate enterprises,so it cannot comprehensively evaluate the financial risks faced by the enterprises.For real estate enterprises,it is more effective and more comprehensive to evaluate financial risk by adding some non-financial indicators.Therefore,the core content of this paper is to introduce non-financial indicators while quantifying and analyzing financial indicators,and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to establish a more comprehensive and more accurate evaluation system of financial risk.In the research content,the main contents are as follows: first of all,this paper defines the concept of financial risk applying the broad financial risk that can represent the uncertainty of the whole financial activity,and explores the related theories of financial risk assessment,which found that the theory of non optimal system provides a theoretical basis,the theory of risk management provides the research route and the theory of analytic hierarchy process provides methodological support for the study.Secondly,it explores the current situation and problems of CF company's financial risk assessment,analyzes the existing financial risk assessment system based on financial statements and non financial indicators,and finds out the existing problems.It is found that CF company's existing financial risk assessment system still has some problems such as conflicting evaluation results,lack of non-financial indicators,complicated financial indicators,incomplete financial risk evaluation system and so on.Thirdly,in order to make up the shortage of the existing system,a new financial risk assessment system should be set up.In order to effectively control the financial risks and reduce the financial loss,this paper establishes a series of principles to be followed.Under the guidance of systematic principle,benefit principle and sensitive principle,this paper selects the index indicators,uses analytic hierarchy process to give weight to the index,designs different scoring schemes for financial and non financial indicators and builds a comprehensive level of risk classification standards.Finally,this paper applies the new financial risk assessment model to the CF company,and calculates the index scores and the comprehensive scores.On the basis of the results of the comprehensive evaluation of the financial risk assessment,this paper determines that the current financial risk of CF company is in a low risk state,and both financial and non financial indicators are important factors.The debt paying ability,operating capacity,cash flow,macro economy,corporate governance and other indicators are not ideal.Financial risk control and prevention should be strengthened in terms of adjusting capital structure,strengthening inventory management,monitoring cash flow,focusing on macroeconomic changes,and establishing a perfect financial risk assessment system.In the conclusion,the research on financial risk assessment has made some achievements in both theory and practice.On the one hand,based on domestic and foreign financial risk research literature,combined with financial indicators and non-financial indicators,this paper establishes a comprehensive financial risk evaluation system for CF company by AHP.The introduction of non-financial indicators,the use of AHP modeling,the establishment of a comprehensive risk level classification standard and multidimensional analysis of evaluation results according to hierarchical level all enrich the theoretical research results of financial risk assessment to a certain extent.On the other hand,under the guidance of the principles of systematic,benefit and sensitivity,a comprehensive financial risk assessment model including financial indicators and non-financial indicators is constructed by using AHP through four steps of index selection,weight determination,scoring plan design and risk classification.It is proved that the model has a certain effectiveness,and other enterprises can use it directly for reference.In addition,the guiding principles,construction steps and construction methods used in this paper also provide a demonstration of financial risk assessment for other enterprises.It is hoped that this study can provide some reference for the financial risk assessment and control of Real Estate Company,which is still in the growing stage of China.